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Author: imdajunkman Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35345  
Subject: Re: CD or treasury bill ? Date: 6/20/2006 12:05 PM
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Loki,

Go back and read my post more carefully. I wasn't "overplaying" any of the factors that might be important to the person who originally asked the question of how to choose between Treasuries and CD's. I merely pointed to some factors than other people had failed to mention, and I was very careful, as I always am, to point out that each investor's situation was unique and that they needed to decide for themselves which were the important factors. To identify the existence of choices isn't to argue their relative importance.

The mistake you persistently make is to presume that the choice you have made for yourself is also the choice that is most appropriate of others. E.g., you say:

"But, as tempting as 6 month T-bills may look at the moment, there is no guarantee that yields, short term and long term, won't be lower in 6 months. There may be talk of inflation and higher rates, but the economic prognasticators are almost universally talking economic slowdown, and common sense suggests to me that this time they may get it right. Even if there isn't recession, that might lead to flight from stocks to bonds or cuts in rates by the Fed, which in turn, might mean lower interest rates.

But exactly the opposite case can be about where interest rates are headed made through appeals to facts and evidence, not private intuitions from "common sense".

Mostly definitely, you have to make your choices as you understand the investing landscape. But others, maybe most people, aren't traveling the same path. So, yes, continue to share your map, but stop trying to argue that your map is the only valid one.

No there no one right way to do any of this stuff. The investing world is far different, far more complex, far more uncertain than the closed and closeted world of the classroom where model building that depends on simplifications does have a place but tends to confuse its tidy fictions with the messiness of reality. Good enough is as good as it will ever get, because no one but one can predict the future. But right now, the 6-month bill is looking pretty good for reasons that will require a separate post. But I'll challenge you to a "disputation" in the academic sense. Make your case against it, and I'll make a case for it.

Charlie
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