Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (78) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread
Author: warrl Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5069  
Subject: Re: FIRE Benchmarks Date: 9/24/2003 2:12 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 6
<i.Well according to intercst, the safe withdrawal rate is 4% and you would need 25x your FIRE budget to retire. Other than a rather large question as to whether that is remotely accurate long term (a diversified portfolio of US stocks, real estate and international/emerging market stocks is unlikely to deliver the same results in the past and so the withdrawal rate figure is wrong. 2%-2.5% is much more likely making the FIRE multiple 40-50x FIRE budget and not 25x),

Perhaps you would care to explain exactly why are you so confident that long-term results of the stock market in the future will be only about half the level of the worst 30-year period in the past 100+ years?

Or, to put it in perspective, why we will be looking at the Great Depression and the stagflation 70s as high-growth periods?

Intercst never advertised the 4% rate as "accurate long term". He advertised it as giving a high confidence of being able to continue through the worst 30-year period in the history he could accumulate. Naturally this implies that if future returns are a bit better than the historical worst, you'll end the 30-year period with a spot of change in your pocket - if future returns match the historical average, you'll be filthy rich. But his concern was for the worst one could reasonably expect.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (78) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread

Announcements

Post of the Day:
Berkshire Hathaway

Burger King's Play Not For Taxes?
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement