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Author: galtsgulch One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75381  
Subject: Re: The Anti-Motley Fool viewpoint Date: 2/19/1998 11:04 AM
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<< I find it humorous that you choose not to refute a single one of those reasons.>>

You do realize, of course, that your assertion that I did not give any reasons isn't true. AAMOF, I find it very humorous that you deleted most of my previous post and did not respond to it. For the other readers here is what orangeblood snipped.

"While both market investors and DOGS need a strong economy, DOGS claim to have the ability to cherry pick the market. Historically, in a bull market DOGS go UP MORE than the market and go DOWN LESS in a bear market. I claim that DOGS will not automatically go up in a bear market (in the future) -- they are indeed sensitive to the strength of the economy. If you try to implement DOGS in Zambia you will find the strategy fails. Or do you think that DOGS are immune to the strength of the economy? If not, then you admit that you need both a strong economy and the ability to cherry-pick the winners. QED"

On top of the problem I stated above, there are many problems in logical thinking that DOGS are making. Among their mistaken views is their belief that mutual fund managers (who spend their life at this game) wouldn't copy this technique since 90% of them lost to the S&P 500 recently. That just a few simple-minded "Aw Shucks" kind of guys could keep the lid on the secret. I've also noticed that many DOGS have fundamental problems understanding how prices are set in a market. (Please understand that I'm in no way agreeing that the DOGS works, I'm just pointing out another one of the fantastic ideas they must cling to in order to maintain their beliefs.)

Among the problems oragneblood is having is that by *proof* he means something equivalent to a crystal ball that can guarantee that the DOGS won't beat the market. And as long as he doesn't get this, he will go on happily believing the DOGS strategy until it losses to the market for 10 years in a row. At which point, I can only imagine he will become my strongest ally. :-)

I don't think there is any point going on. Short of a crystal ball, I don't think anything could dissuade orangeblood.

cheers,
John Power
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