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<<intercst's plan for financing early retirement is based on actual experience with the American economy going back about 150 years.

Yes, we know.

So you don't to worry about "someday." The worst case scenario is already built into this financial plan.

No, it is not "the worst case." It is "the worst case in the 150 years in only the American economy." It does not include being in the Weimar Republic during the hyperinflation of the 1920's, for example. Or in Argentina in the 1970's, to name a more recent instance.

Yes, we know. That caveat is mentioned in the sentence you posted above.

It's an important caveat, too, I agree. The early retiree who quit working in 1913 Germany might be expected to have a rocky road in life.

<<There is no magic genie who says such a catastrophic event couldn't happen here. The chances are small, I grant you, but the intrcst formula is not perfect for all time and all places.

No one made that claim.

<<You missed the entire point of the article. Some people (not you, because you're 100% rational, always) aren't wired to hold the intercst model perfectly, and WILL panic and sell. In some cases, they might even be right, as we have seen many economies collapse entirely and getting out while you have "a little" is better than not getting out and having "nothing". Russia, 1990.

I'm in favor of people making their own decisions as a general rule. The decision I've made to save and invest has been ridiculed by my peers many times. Still, I'm content to live with the fruits of nearly thirty years of investing decisions, while those who've preferred to spend and spend I hope are equally happy with their decisions.

The idea of this article that some people have a genetic predisposition to that kind of decision making is unproven excuse making. An older bit of wisdom is content to observe that a fool and his money are soon parted.

Seattle Pioneer

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