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<<<? I know this is probably a stupid question, but I'd like to hear some thoughts on this apparent contradiction. >>>

We run into contradictions everyday, and still manage to live by them. In the spirit of baseball's opening day, "when someone yells heads up, they really mean duck".

Past history is all we have to bank on, it's the only thing that we know. Therefore, the 11% quote. At the same time, it's not guaranteed. Another sports analogy, the golf handicap. I have a 19 handicap, meaning, on average, I shoot 19 over par or 91 most days*. I can go through stretches where I'm much better and unfortunately stretches that are much worse. If I don't practice to become a better golfer or suffer age/injury to become worse, I'll always shoot around a 91. The only way to tell is time. Is the market "better" or "different"? Only time will tell, therefore, not guaranteed. I also find it ironic that my handicap is 19, but I've never shot 19 over in any round over the past 2 years! Sound familiar?

JLC

* I know the golf handicap is calculated differently than implied but simplified for illustrative purposes.
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