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<Plus, I can't imagine a scenario where the inflation rate would stay at 5%.>

I can. It was not that long ago that I remember 13% inflation rates. My dad worked several extra years when he was technically able to retire then, since there was no way his pension and conservative investments could have produced 13% after taxes.

<Maybe for a year or two or three, but hopefully nothing sustained.>

Hopefully is right (not grammatically), but, while not due to inflation, the little 80% dip in 1929-1931 took 25 years to break even. Many retirees may not have enough liquid capital sitting around to tide them over such a long dip.

<The Fed seems to have much better control of inflation now than it did 30 years ago.>

I would like to see PROOF of this. An alternative explanation is that the Fed has little to do with it in the long run and that the Fed has just been lucky.
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