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Author: themeateater Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3604  
Subject: Re: Takeover/smakeover Date: 7/27/2000 4:29 PM
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M - thanks for the link, and congradulations to throgsnk for being cited in the LA Times.

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Points I picked up on are:

1.) But Salomon's Rosenzweig downplayed the likelihood of a takeover. "At $10 billion in market cap, this is still quite a big company. I don't know who would be interested," he said. "Printing is not exactly the fastest-growing industry out there, and I'm not sure a rival like Hewlett-Packard would need it. They're already leading in the key areas that Xerox is trying to focus on, such as desktop printing."

Value of XRX is not as a Printing/Copying Company - but as:

a.) a service company that has significant presense in offices throughout the world;

b.) a company with a great name franchise and a good marketing organization;

c.) a company with a substantial legacy business to generate cash flow (once excess cost are rung out);

d.) and a company with significant R&D resources.
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2.) George Putnam, editor of the Turnaround Letter, a Boston-based newsletter that tracks beaten-down stocks, said he would look for signs of stock-price stability before considering investing. "It's starting to become interesting as a turnaround play. But there's an expression that you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife," he said. "That said, it has some of the things we look for in a turnaround: a good franchise, a new management team being built, and the company is not all that highly leveraged. It's really just a matter of timing."

I agree with the falling knife comment and that "it's really just a matter of timing." What I disagree with is the comment about a new management team being built. What I still see is the old management team. Not the Throman Team, but the older Allaire Team.

IMO - What XRX needs is a new & visionary leader. Someone who doesn't think of XRX as a paper based document company (aka Printing) Company.
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Perhaps XRX should think about merging with smaller firms with complementry technologies.

It's a pretty good guess that, in the near future, that most document solutions aren't going to require paper based technologies at all. There are plenty of dynamic firms which can benefit with access to the international service & marketing resources which XRX can provide.

The risk here is management. It makes no sense coupling a dynamic enterprise to this old style management team. The leadership has to come from the new (Not the old).

Bruno the Meateater

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