In one of the ad blurbs for Supernova, MF says "Your 98.79% Chance at Beating the Market -If you're interested in the best odds in the universe — including more than a 70% chance at DOUBLING the market's return over the long haul — here's some very good news for you... Motley Fool Supernova is re-opening to new members for the first time ever on January 15! Get this: We arrived at these odds from 10,000 random back-tested portfolios made up of Co-founder David Gardner's personal stock picks between December 2002 and December 2011..."I do not know where to begin. Using past performance to predict the future.... claiming 'the best odds in the universe' [remember, we're not talking about casino gambling here, . . . I don't think] . . . You can "predict" how well you would have done in the PAST based on the data MF is using. I understand people like back testing - many even seem to think it can predict the future or at least whether a proposed investment strategy has a good chance of earning a good return . . . again, in the future.This is, of course, nonsense. While it is always important to check the track record of an investment adviser or newsletter, thinking past performance predicts future results is pure folly.Shame on you, MF.
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