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To somewhat corroborate or at least correlate with your linked essay, Bill DeShurko, in an article on suggests that the divergence between HYG and SPY may be a signal that stocks could break lower soon. He is waiting to see whether HYG turns up or whether SPY turns down to determine the meaning of the uncharacteristic divergence.

I created my own 1-year chart to assess his comments, at the following link:

You can see that HYG and SPY do appear to move in the same direction, with some lag.

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