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Author: TMFMurph Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76392  
Subject: May want to re-think traditional allocations... Date: 9/26/2012 10:30 AM
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...in light of some recent analysis:

http://boards.fool.com/glidepath-investing-for-retirement-30...

Cheers!
Murph
Home Fool
( who is primarily a dividend growth investor, and at age almost 66 has less than 20% in bond investments )
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Author: joelxwil Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70960 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 11:45 AM
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Well, if you are just going to buy and hold, there is very little you can do to be profitable. There are times to be in the stock market, and times to be out of it.

Allocations are bunk, but obviously some are more bunk than others.

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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70962 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 3:07 PM
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Well, if you are just going to buy and hold, there is very little you can do to be profitable
Not true at all...

2-leg re-set indexing does it. This company calls it 'Integrated Options Portfolio.' http://desertrosecapital.com/

Leveraged income residential real estate is also very well positioned for the present and coming events.

Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

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Author: joelxwil Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70963 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 3:36 PM
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Interesting sales pitch. However, I have never heard of an IRA which allows the purchase of naked call options. Perhaps there is such a thing, but I doubt it. Therefore you will have to pay taxes on your gains and that is not mentioned in the sales pitch. Still, it might work, but it really depends on the pricing of 2-year options. You will have to pay a premium upon purchase, so the stock or index fund has to go up enough to make up for that, and that puts you at an initial disadvantage. After all, the stock can go up, but you can still lose money on the option.

And "Leveraged income residential real estate"? Great, but it certainly requires timing, as people who bought a few years ago know.

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Author: Hawkwin Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70964 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 4:04 PM
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2-leg re-set indexing does it. This company calls it 'Integrated Options Portfolio.' http://desertrosecapital.com/

I saw you post this on another board and was interested, since I had never heard of the 2-leg re-set term before.

From the above link, there are quite a few assumptions that are questionable, to say the least:

By not owning the shares of “ABC” Fund, we will not have any shareholder rights (no dividends, voting, etc.), unless we decide to actually purchase the shares . In this case, the dividends are 1%/year.

That is quite a lowball div to help their performance. SPY yields twice as much. Failure #1.

We will not have to pay the “ABC” Fund expense fees which will save us 1.25%/year, but Desert Rose will charge a 1% fee to implement and manage the IOP.

Why would you pay fund expenses of 1.25%??? Most institutional shares are well below that and of course index funds are a fraction of that. Additionally, why use funds at all if they are going to compare it to buying calls, why not simply compare to the underlying stock or index? Failure #2.

We will also assume that the fixed income money ($43,500) was put into a short-term, high quality bond fund (“RST” Fund) that is yielding 5%/year. There is much more that we do in this area to yield more than this, but let’s keep it simple for now with what we believe is a conservative assumption of 5%. Also for simplicity, we will also assume for now that the “RST” bond fund price will remain constant.

Failure #3 and #4. One need not even comment on how bad both those assumptions are.

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70965 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 5:17 PM
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2-leg re-set indexing does it. This company calls it 'Integrated Options Portfolio.' http://desertrosecapital.com/

Leveraged income residential real estate is also very well positioned for the present and coming events.


Great. When you go to that site it starts playing a video, with loud audio. Right there is a marker that this is a rinky-dink operation. But, hey, doesn't EVERYBODY want their co-workers to know that they are surfing non-work-related investment sites?
And whatever else they load stalls my netbook in its tracks, so it took forever to kill it.

Between the video and the frozen scrolling (see: netbook, stalling of, above) I couldn't even see what their gimmick was.

I've never heard of "2-leg re-set indexing", but I suspect it stands for "These scamsters are going to take all my money". Google show nothing -- except for a few TMF board postings, so I suspect that my suspicion is correct. Either that or it's some standard well-known strategy that these bozos have plastered their own name on, to fool the marks.

-------------
Oh, I see from one of your (Dave's) posts that this is just the standard roll-your-own indexed annnuity. Except that instead of buying a safe T-bill or CD, you buy a junk bond. What could possibly go wrong?

Excuse me while I go throw up.

I did get a chuckle from the bit about "downside security (safety)" of junk bonds, though.

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70966 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 5:39 PM
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Oh, cr*p, there's more.

From the METAR board post # 404778 4/27/2012

If you can buy a high-grade stable bond portfolio with a 6% yield,...
And this is from April of THIS YEAR.
Ok, it's now September, but did yields collapse since April and I just didn't notice?

BOND is yielding 2.20%. BND is 2.78%. AGG is 2.40%.

JNK is yielding 7.00%, and Morningstar rates its overall Risk as "High".

Dave, a suggestion. Stick to mortgages and forget making investment advice. Recommending to put your "safe" leg in junk bonds, Geesh!

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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70967 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 6:42 PM
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Hi Joel,
Interesting sales pitch. However, I have never heard of an IRA which allows the purchase of naked call options. Perhaps there is such a thing, but I doubt it. Therefore you will have to pay taxes on your gains and that is not mentioned in the sales pitch.
Self-directed IRA & ROTH IRAs allow options to be purchased.
(Not sure what you are referring to by "purchase of NAKED call options.")

Still, it might work, but it really depends on the pricing of 2-year options.
It works, and its easy to suss it out for yourself at CBOE.com.
Run it on 1 year options for judgement.

You will have to pay a premium upon purchase, so the stock or index fund has to go up enough to make up for that, and that puts you at an initial disadvantage. After all, the stock can go up, but you can still lose money on the option.
No, you buy a call at the money, and sell a call out of the money (if you want immediate upside participation dollar-for-dollar or greater.)

And "Leveraged income residential real estate"? Great, but it certainly requires timing, as people who bought a few years ago know.
Oh HECK NO... today's buying environment is EXPONENTIALLY better than any time in the last 20 years, at least! Sellers are far more motivated, lenders are providing near-free long term money, private financing can much more easily be negotiated for what institutions won't cover (and again at firesale rates & terms.) Rents are on the hockeystick.

I own several properties at purchase basis from years 2000 to 2006, and although they're all cashflow positive in their status quo, they'd be roughly double the yield at today's pricing and lending rates.

Yield on actual cash (as well as yield on overall risk) is stronger now than in a generation, and all the present economic developments are improving the strengths.

========================

Hawkwin,
I won't tear apart your response into sub-parsements... I'll simply say;
Leg #1 = the highest yield on a 'very high safety' portfolio. Institutions are getting 5-6%+ on their safe ports at present.
Leg #2 = bull debit call spread. You can go to the CBOE & price them out for yourself, its not rocket surgery.

========================

Rayvt,
I suggest you keep your speakers down at your employer's place of business if you're surfing sites you wouldn't want your employer to know you're surfing.
"Junk bonds" is your own suggestion, not mine.
========================

FOLKS,
This is done, done today, and done consistently.
You can say its impossible for *YOU* to DIY...
You can say its possible, but too expensive for you to DIY...
You can say its possible, but too expensive to have done FOR you...

But volatility (getting trapped to the downside of an unhedged trade) is a cost, too... its a cost of time to recover, and a 'surrender charge' if you have to liquidate for access.

You can't say reset-indexing is not done (it has been and is, now, and for years,)
I've yet to find anyone who can DIY cheaper than the firms offering it pre-packaged as a service,
(the parts to the whole are not rocket surgery... you can try it DIY,)
*AND* you can't prove it being safely outperformed by non-derivative asset allocation.

It doesn't have to be for everyone... you can hate it (knock yourselves out.)

For people who want zero market downside risks (or near zero, if not reserve-backed) with market upside gains, in a tax efficient account, this is the cheapest way to get it.

Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70968 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/26/2012 8:43 PM
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Blaring auto-play videos are amateurish. Regardless of whether a site visitor may be at work or not, it's rude.

"High yield bonds" = junk bonds. That's the definition.

If you really think that you can get ca. 6% in a safe, low-risk fixed income security these days...well all I can do is shake my head and back away slowly.
Reaching for yield is well known as being one of the more extremely dangerous things to do in fixed-income investing.

The first thing to do when somebody presents an investment strategy is to google it. That's what I did with "2-leg reset indexing". The only hits were posts by Dave. Clearly this strategy is either totally unknown or is commonly known by another name.

Now google "Reaching for yield". 31 million results.

As far as firms offering it pre-packaged as a service, it's just not true. Investment companies invest in the same market as everybody else. They do not have access to bonds, etc. that are not also available to Pimco (BOND), iShares (HYG), Vanguard, etc.
So, yeah, if you wanted to DIY, it's trivially easy to do.

As far as risk, take a look at the charts of HYG and BND. Take a look at the 5 year chart and take a look at that 40% loss that HYG had.

Dave, you really do yourself a dis-service by pushing this cr*p. your good advice on mortgages is washed away by these claims that a high risk strategy is safe.

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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70969 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 1:09 AM
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As far as firms offering it pre-packaged as a service, it's just not true.
Of course it is.

Investment companies invest in the same market as everybody else. They do not have access to bonds, etc. that are not also available to Pimco (BOND), iShares (HYG), Vanguard, etc.
So, yeah, if you wanted to DIY, it's trivially easy to do.

PIMCO offers exactly this publically for their parent company Allianz, & institutionally to various securities & insurance firms. You can read their audited results/returns, and though they don't give away their internal trade mix, they back it (on their own insurance siide) guaranteeing no loss.

They put their money where their mouth is... and they have a *LOT* of money at stake, and backing up their word. Somehow their financial strength & credibility carries a bit more weight than yours.

As far as risk, take a look at the charts of HYG and BND. Take a look at the 5 year chart and take a look at that 40% loss that HYG had.
Why? I don't try to beat the yield pros at their game, I just exploit them.

Dave, you really do yourself a dis-service by pushing this cr*p. your good advice on mortgages is washed away by these claims that a high risk strategy is safe.
Ray, your irrational bias is glaring.

Principal guarantees (zero risk of market loss) are backed by reserves-funded guarantees. Like I said, you can hate it, but you can't beat it.
Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

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Author: Hawkwin Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70970 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 9:29 AM
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Leg #1 = the highest yield on a 'very high safety' portfolio. Institutions are getting 5-6%+ on their safe ports at present.

Can you please show me one "short-term high quality bond fund" that is paying 5%?

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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70971 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 9:34 AM
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Hawkwin,

I'm not at my desk, link may come later.

I said; a 'very high safety' portfolio.
You ask for; one "short-term high quality bond fund"

Why are you asking for distinctions different than what I stated?
Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

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Author: Hawkwin Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70972 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 9:46 AM
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Hmmm, my fund screener on Morningstar shows no fund yielding over 2% that meets the criteria of short-term, high quality (AA or better), regardless of morningstar rating, risk, load, or otherwise.

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Author: Hawkwin Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70973 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 10:04 AM
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You ask for; one "short-term high quality bond fund"

Why are you asking for distinctions different than what I stated?


I am asking for what the site states, not what you state.

The link you provided specifically stated "short-term, high quality bond fund yielding 5% - and is considered a "conservative" estimate.

http://desertrosecapital.com/iop-101

We will also assume that the fixed income money ($43,500) was put into a short-term, high quality bond fund (“RST” Fund) that is yielding 5%/year. There is much more that we do in this area to yield more than this, but let’s keep it simple for now with what we believe is a conservative assumption of 5%. Also for simplicity, we will also assume for now that the “RST” bond fund price will remain constant.

I remember reading recently on METAR about the "buckets of Money" guy getting slapped by FINRA for using inappropriate information. If this company is selling their investment idea based on short term high quality bond funds yielding 5% - and claiming such is conservative...then they might want to prepare for a letter from FINRA in the future.

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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70974 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 12:30 PM
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I am asking for what the site states, not what you state.
The link you provided specifically stated "short-term, high quality bond fund yielding 5% - and is considered a "conservative" estimate.
http://desertrosecapital.com/iop-101

OK, you'll have to ask them directly then, that's not my company.

If this company is selling their investment idea based on short term high quality bond funds yielding 5% - and claiming such is conservative...then they might want to prepare for a letter from FINRA in the future.
They might want to, or perhaps they're already sorted on that aspect.

I'd assume they fund their safe leg from the same trading firms, like PIMCO, that provide that service for the insurance companies that provide reset indexing. (Granted, its my *assumption* that DRC does it this way... unlike the insurance companies they don't back their safety with reserve-funded guarantees, so the bottom line risk is on the account holder. Of course, they also seem to have no lock in periods nor surrender fees.)

Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70975 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 2:45 PM
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Well, I muted my speakers and revisited that site with fingers poised to pause the video as soon as it started playing. Purused their information and examples.

Malarkey.

This would only make sense to someone who knew very little about investing or the markets, to whom every concept is new. And who believes that there is such a thing as "a short-term, high quality bond fund that is yielding 5%/year." These people would be known as "gullible marks" -- because there is no such fund.

They are taking a well-known concept and dressing it up to make it sound exotic, plus misleading (read: lying) about the expenses.

This is just the standard DIY guaranteed indexed annuity. Put enough money into a safe fixed-income vehicle to grow (note: "grow" not "blossom") to even in 1 year, and buy a 1-year call option on the index.

Misleads ("lies"):
1) The claimed 5% on the fixed-income is not available. There is no such thing right now. 1.5% to 2.5% is all that you can get.
2) The equity fund expenses. The expense fees of the fund are baked into the price. Not only into the price of the fund, but also the price of the call option. It is not a separate fee (and therefore there is no "you must sell 6 shares to pay the expenses"), and there is no way to avoid it. None.
3) Therefore, the total expenses are the fund's 1.25% fee PLUS the 1% IOP fee, for a total E/R of 2.25%.
4) The E/R of the fund. Does anybody pay 1.25% anymore? The average E/R for Large Blend etf's is 0.33%. SPY is 0.09%, Fidelity Magellan is 0.60%
5) Are there even listed options for mutual funds? I don't see any on a quick look. Options on ETFs, options on indexes, yes. But I didn't see any options on mutual funds. Or are they eliding the difference between a mutual fund and an ETF?

What you can do on your own right now, with $100,000:
1) Buy CSJ (1-3 year credit bond ETF) yielding 1.70%. $98,328 will grow to $100K in 1 year.
2) With the remaining $1672 buy a one year at-the-money call option on an equity ETF.
2a) EFA is 53.72. The Sep'13 54.00 call is 4.20. So buy 398 options. (Which you can't-- the contract size is 100 shares.)
The break-even price for EFA is 57.92, or 7.8% above the current price. If it closes below 57.92 the call expires worthless, and all you have is the $100,000 from CSJ.
But IOP would charge you 1% fee, or $1,000. Which happens to be almost half of the gain you got from CSJ. So instead of breaking even you'd have a net loss of 1%.
2b) SPY is 143.85. The Sep'13 144.00 call is 9.71. So buy 172 options.
The break-even price for SPY is 153.56, or 6.8% above the current price.

Nothing magic, nothing hard to do, anybody can buy these issues, no pixie dust.

6, of misleads) You don't capture the first 8%-9% of the equity's gain. 1% fee + 6.8% or 7.8% of the gain.
You only get the gains that are in excess of that. That's pretty darned expensive to get to break-even.

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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70976 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 2:58 PM
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OK, you'll have to ask them directly then, that's not my company.
But you are pushing them. Don't you do any due dilegence or even smell testing? You believe anything that somebody tells you?

I'd assume they fund their safe leg from the same trading firms, like PIMCO,...
Why not assume unicorn dust?
PIMCO Total Return ETF (BOND) is an intermediate term bonds/fixed income ETF, with a current yield of 2.19%.
Intermediate term, not short term. 2%, not 5%. Intermediate term yields more than short term, and it STILL is much less than 5%.

Do you somehow think that PIMCO is hiding their short-term high- quality low-risk 5% portfolio under a blanket, and offering it only to a few special friends?

Stop defending the indefensible. Stop pushing crappy investments that you don't understand. Please!

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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70977 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/27/2012 4:18 PM
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Ray,

Nothing magic, nothing hard to do, anybody can buy these issues, no pixie dust.
Agreed that its nothing magic, which is what I've been saying all along.

Matching the performance is obviously something you don't see how to do (nor is it required, you don't have to be a mechanic to drive a car.)

6, of misleads) You don't capture the first 8%-9% of the equity's gain. 1% fee + 6.8% or 7.8% of the gain. You only get the gains that are in excess of that. That's pretty darned expensive to get to break-even.
Only if you fail to put on an option spread to neutralize the delta (and this the cost drag of the long options.)

Buy a call, and you have to earn the hurdle of the cost to break even.
Buy ATM, sell OTM, to equal your safe leg yield, and you are cost neutral, protected against market downside, and participating in the upside.

But you are pushing them. Don't you do any due dilegence or even smell testing? You believe anything that somebody tells you?
You're wrong. I just linked them as one fund providing the trade outside the life insurers. There are others, and they're getting the similar results.

Again, not rocket surgery (just not your religious bias.)

Do you somehow think that PIMCO is hiding their short-term high- quality low-risk 5% portfolio under a blanket, and offering it only to a few special friends?
I'm sure they sell it to the buyers they want to sell it to. They do it for their parent.

Stop defending the indefensible. Stop pushing crappy investments that you don't understand. Please!
Clearly I'm not the one failing the understanding of how they work.

You've demonstrated you don't understand option spreading.
You have no idea where they're getting their safe leg yield,
(Hint; While I don't have the position breakouts, I know that the safe leg portfolios that they guarantee with their own reserves is comprised of a mix of corporate bonds, commercial notes and real estate, and 'other securities.')

When they claim "safe" and back it up with annually audited reserves to make good on any drawdowns should they incur them... that's 'safe' enough for me.

Its really *NOT* rocket surgery... but you're doing a fine job of making it appear to be.

Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

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Author: StockGoddess Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 70989 of 76392
Subject: Re: May want to re-think traditional allocations Date: 9/28/2012 1:54 PM
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Discussions on reverse-glidepath:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=103...

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