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Author: MurrayS Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75633  
Subject: Re: S&P & SMA Date: 5/4/2013 7:54 PM
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Maybe you can backtest it. I looked at your criteria and thought it had too many subjective pieces. The market does what the market does, and whether or not you've bought or sold anything in the last 3 months doesn't enter into the picture.

There's nothing subjective about it, sell when the market is high, buy when the market is low. The 3 month waiting period is to keep from selling again next week when I just sold on Friday.

To be honest, I just backtested the S&P, not all the indices, but that's just because I'm lazy, not because it can't be done.

I generally try to write down the concrete steps of any method I'm considering, as if I was going to write a program to implement it.

That's what I did. I have it programed into a spreadsheet that tells me to buy or sell.

What if the US is at a 52-week high but Asia isn't? What if Asia then hits a high but US has dropped below the high? If you insist that all 3 must hit a high (or low) simultaneously, you might *never* get a signal.

I should have been more clear, if the average of the indies are at 95% or 5% of their 52 week/26 week trading range. (average of their ranges, not prices) The S&P had hit it's high last week (I believe), but it was getting dragged down by Europe which still isn't at a high (about 80%), but my average hit 98% on Friday so sell, or rather in this case rebalance since it's at my target bond to stock balance.

Simple is better, because simple is more robust.

I tend to think it's quite simple, more simple than how I interpret the SMA strategy.

-murray
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