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Author: markr33 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75383  
Subject: Re: foolish payouts: lets get real Date: 12/12/1999 6:23 PM
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me: If 4% of $1M is a safe withdrawal rate, then so is 4% of $29M. (and probably more so - because you can easily reduce it to 3% or 2% if times get tough :-)


That is what one would think, but all the withdrawal tables I have seen withdraw a percent (say 4) of the INITIAL amount, NOT of the appreciated amount. Most also have an allowance for inflation, so at year 15 you are removing an amount equal to 4% of 1M, plus a bit for inflation, not 4% of the amount available at year 15. This is the crux of my message, that the withdrawal tables do not stand my reality test, that is to say if I put myself into the 15 year situation, I'm sure not going to be taking out 60 or 70k when I could take much more perfectly safely.


So if you retire and begin withdrawing 4% of $1M, and this goes on for 10 or 15 years, and meanwhile your assets grow to $29M, then you return to work for a few weeks and retire again. At that point, what is the safe withdrawal amount ? I think it would be 4% of $29M according to all the charts. (now, do the same thing, but skip the few weeks of working in between :-)
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