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Author: OfficerPup Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 70726  
Subject: Re: View on Redback Date: 3/7/2001 9:22 PM
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Mea culpa, I never got around to buying the original "10 Rulers" report, which is evidently undergoing revision as posts accumulate on this board. That said...

this would be the 4th of 10 that would have been removed; the other 3 being CREE, INSP, and CMGI

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say 3 1/2 have been removed; Cree isn't on the world rulers list, but unlike CMGI and INSP, it's still a contender; it mearly got knocked onto the potential world ruler's list (as posted on 3/1/01.

Potential World Rulers

Akamai
Avanex
Cree
E.piphany
Ibis
Real Networks


While I would like it if Cree stayed on the "rulers" list, as of now the "potential" list is the right place for them; their avenue to world ruler-dom hinges on their ability to make a compound semiconductor, SiC, essential and irreplacable in our lives much as plain old Si already is. In order to do that they must bring SiC products to market that are better and more cost effective than equivalents made from other materials. So, how are they doing on that front?

>Cree's SiC-based blue LEDs are finding their way into more products.
Good, add one Ruler point

>Recently Cree revealed they were having some problems transitioning from 2" to 3" SiC wafers; being able to use the larger wafer is, needless to say, imperative to increasing unit yields and driving down costs.
Bad, subtract one Ruler point

>Cree is making good progress on their RF filters and blue lasers, but these products are still in development and have not been brought to market. Once they are (and I'm confident the RF filters will be ready this year, blue lasers next year), we'll have a much better idea about Cree's ruler status as the market adopts or doesn't adopt them
Indifferent, neither add nor subtract Ruler points

The upshot is, there needs to be more proof that SiC-based devices are going to be viable across a range of product catergories before Cree can climb back onto the dais and have the purple robe drapped across its shoulders again.

I believe it will happen; in spite of recent setbacks things still appear to be moving in that direction.

Regards,

Pup

PS: Just for informational purposes, I sold off CMGI for about what I paid for it, never held INSP, never held RBAK, and am waaaay long CREE.
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