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Author: lobodoug Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 464974  
Subject: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/7/2012 1:47 AM
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Greetings all!

First, somehow, either through an error on my part, or something that occurred when Google migrated Google Docs to their new G-Drive, a lot of information was lost, so I have had to rebuild the spreadsheet. In particular, dividend info was lost.

I have gone through each company on the list and searched their dividends on DIVIDEND.COM. If it was not listed there, I believe it is not paying a dividend. Feel free to check, though, and let me know if this is incorrect. They only list the past 4 dividends, so with companies that pay monthly I went to the company website. Some of those, to simplify my life, I list all dividends paid through the end of the third quarter as one payment for the 3rd quarter instead of breaking them down for each quarter. In addition to the simple standings spreadsheet, I will give a link to view the full spreadsheet for anyone who wants to check that I have their stock's dividends entered correctly.

So, to the standings. Well, it seems that, while there might be some jockeying for the lead in this horse race, the same horses are leading with most of us betting on dogs, far behind the lead!

COMBINED RESULTS:

1) ANDROCLES, with AAPL and WFM, up a combined 51%. Androcles has led, or been just behind 1st all year, and this performance with two stocks is very impressive so far.

2) Dkline1, also with AAPL, and his bet on Santander Bank now looking good, is second with a combined 44%. Santander has changed the symbol of its ADR from STD (uh, yeah...not the best choice!) to SAN. This wreaked havok with my spreadsheet until I figured it out!

3) knightof3 with MED and BRK.A is up 34%


LONG SHOT STOCKS:

1) PeterRabbit, up 114%, with PPP
2) EddieLuck is up 94%, with SGMNF
3) goldountry is up 90% with TRX

Hmmmm. Very Interesting. All three of these are small gold miners. While (so far...remember, there are 3 months to go) Androcles has shown us that big, solid companies can have great returns, but clearly these three guys have shown us that we all should have been buying obscure gold miners! SGMNF and TRX do not even show profits! But PPP has a P/E of 6.5. Anyone care to make bear and bull cases for an investment today in PPP? With so many countries debasing their currencies, perhaps the gold run is not over?

SAFE BET STOCKS:

OK, this one is starting to sound like a broken record! Kudos for the leaders, again, with a tie for first having chosen AAPL:

1) ANDROCLES and Dkline1
3) bryanstryin with SLW. Do I hear Sonny Page laughing somewhere? Unfortunately, Silver is not without risks still, as shown by bryanstryin's Long Shot choice: USSIF, US Silver, is the only stock in our contest so far to go to $0.

The METAR PORTFOLIOS:

Long Shot: up 1.57%
Safe Bet: up 4.9%
Combined: up 4.07%

vs the SPY, up 14.32%

And, for the "No Where To Go But Up" award, for being in dead last place, we have: well, I won't name names. You can check for yourself by visiting the Google Spreadsheets, and see how you compare to our stars.

Simple Spreadsheet with all results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AmJvCXbV0PsBdHN...

Full Spreadsheet, if you want to check on dividend data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AmJvCXbV0PsBdGV...

One more piece of business: Next Years Contest. It is time to start thinking how you would set up the contest, and if you are willing to run it as I will step down. Towards the end of the month I will start a thread for people to post their ideas for a contest. My inclination is to say that only those willing to run the contest can suggest a methodology...but maybe that is my bias. Once we have some suggestions and discussion, I will set up a poll to vote on methodology.

Stay tuned! And let me know of any errors you find (very possible with all the re-entry of data!)

Cheers,

Doug
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Author: Homebythesea Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405455 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/7/2012 2:09 AM
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Doug,

Thank you for doing all the data entry to make the Contest happen.

I noticed that Cheftms' Safe Bet...

PAA recently split 2 for one.

---alan

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Author: Hohum777 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405459 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/7/2012 3:27 AM
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Doug,
Great job on keeping track of the results. I think the Google tools are great for sharing.

That said, I think there might be a few corrections- Tim443's AMA return would
have Tim taking a ride on a real Heli to relive the old days! and I think there a stock split
for Soycapital's KO pick. There might be more, those two stuck out.

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Author: lobodoug Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405464 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/7/2012 6:40 AM
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Thanks for the error spotting, guys!

I did catch Tim's AMA - that symbol has now been assigned to a different stock. It sort of stood out when Tim was showing a 35,000% gain....

So, first, Apologies to cheftms whose SAFE BET choice just slipped into third once the stock split is accounted for.

The corrections also seriously boosted the METAR portfolio's returns in the SAFE BET category. So, now it is:

METAR LONG SHOT: 1.57%

METAR SAFE BET: 7.16%

METAR COMBINED: 5.76%

SPY: 14.32%

To see full results is the same URL:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AmJvCXbV0PsBdHN...

Also, it was easier to delete to copy of the full spreadsheet and create a new one, so to view all the data and confirm dividend info, go here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AmJvCXbV0PsBdHp...

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Author: PeterRabit Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405467 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/7/2012 8:12 AM
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Doug Towards the end of the month I will start a thread for people to post their ideas for a contest. My inclination is to say that only those willing to run the contest can suggest a methodology...but maybe that is my bias. Once we have some suggestions and discussion, I will set up a poll to vote on methodology.

How about this... Anyone can propose a methodology but only those willing to run that methodology can vote for it (possibly including the proposer).

The methodology with the most people willing to run it wins. The final "runner" is chosen by lot (may be shared).

Peter

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Author: rubberthinking Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405477 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/7/2012 11:00 AM
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Doug,


believe me you....I hate to say this....but the TBT I put in is not up 255%.......it was a reverse split sighted by others earlier today.....

ofw,

Dave

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Author: lobodoug Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405618 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/9/2012 4:26 AM
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OK, my apologies.... I found the source of the problems.... MY BRAIN!!! I had a copy of the METAR spreadsheet, and I got confused which was the earlier copy and which had the current, up-to-date info. So, I updated the older one, but the link I provided led to the one that was only correct through last month.

So, rather than figuring out how to update the other, I just deleted it and we now have a new link for the METAR CONTEST short report form:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AmJvCXbV0PsBdEd...

The link previously given for the full spreadsheet with dividend into was the correct one, so if you visited that, you got the real deal. Feel free to let me know of any other errors you find.

Of all the things I've lost, I miss my mind the most.

Mark Twain

Cheers,

Doug

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Author: bryanstryin Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405620 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/9/2012 8:10 AM
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Hello all,
I don't know if the rules cover this but, in the case of {bryanstryin's Long Shot choice: USSIF, US Silver, is the only stock in our contest so far to go to $0.}
http://www.us-silver.com/

The company merged and did a 5-1 reverse split.

If this is out of place, no problem, but they are still moving up in price with a new starting point.
New listing is USA.TO on Yahoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USA.TO

Prev Close: 2.46

Respectfully,
Bryan
with regards to Sonnypage.

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Author: MegHammond Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405632 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/9/2012 12:23 PM
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Doug,

As a thank you for the work you've done, I'm happy to replenish your supply of these:

http://tinyurl.com/8g25knb

Cheers!

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Author: lobodoug Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405666 of 464974
Subject: Re: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end! Date: 10/10/2012 8:47 AM
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First of, MegHammond, are you implying I've "lost my marbles?" I am reminded of the scene in Hook (the great re-visit to Peter Pan and friends staring Dustin Hoffman and Robin Williams where Tootles is trying to find his lost marbles. Well, I did live on St John for about 10 years, and the unofficial slogan for the island was "We are all here because we are not all there."

Bryan: I note the change in US Silver and will update soon. No time tonight, though. Funny, though, that the symbol still comes up and shows a chart fading to $0. Is this the second change of ticker they've done this year, or is this another issue from my trying to work from my out-of-date spreadsheet? Well, does not matter. Thanks for the correction and I will get it fixed.

If you find my marbles, please return them to me.

Cheers,

Doug

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