Missed a couple months updating here. At end of first full year with real money my MFI stocks using the $30M filter are up 7.15%. That's well off the 15-17% pace I saw in the first 6 months.Now I'm starting to rotate out of 'em month by month. Questioning my committment to continuing adding MFI picks each month from here on out.Main impressions at this juncture?1. Personal discipline/committment to this MFI process is _tough_. 2. The MFI filter really drops some cigar butts in your lap.3. The MFI filter really drops some nice cyclical or out of favor gems in your lap.
Thanks for the update. The S&P500 is up July to July:S&P 500 1 Year Return: 6.74% for Jul 2012Probably add another 1-2% for August, looks like you did about the same as the general market.Are you benchmarking your picks? Just curious.
I've also been missing quite a few month for posting my progress, so since you are being all responsible, I should do the same.I pulled up my account activity for the past 12 months and summed up my invested amounts (debits) and returns (dividends plus current market value of holdings). I am showing a profit of 12.5% for the past 12 months.About a third of my holdings are negative, the middle third ranged from 0%-7%, and the upper third are up 12%-32%. This doesn't include dividends, just stock value.My impressions:1. Yes you are right about that! I have lots of activity in the fall of last year, and then didn't do much at all in the spring. (one buy between Jan and May!) Then I got on the stick, put a reminder in my iPhone calendar, and invested each month. So I did a lot of investing in the last four months.2. Cigar butts, yes. Out of 22 holdings from 2011 to now, 2 are down over 30% (Weight Watchers and HP)3. Cyclicals, yes as well. I have 3 up over 30% (Almost Family, Tempur-Pedic, and Seagate) I've had fun by combining additional preferences to the random-market cap list I generate each month. Sometimes I'll rank the list of thirty by dividend yield and pick the top payers; or Value Line's 3-5 yr Target Price Range, or Piotroski score, or CAPS 5 stars, etc. Can't say it's improved results at all, but it keeps it interesting. If you'd like to see more detailed results, let me know.
i would be interested in your results. Do you throw out ones with weakest balance sheets or lowest FCF?
<i would be interested in your results. Do you throw out ones with weakest balance sheets or lowest FCF? >Nope. Purely mechanical. Took the lowest market cap screen ($50M) results and selected 2-3/month from those results using a random number generator. My only deviation from the MFI formula in year #1 was to sell APOL and CRAY for profit before 12 months.
Personally, I don't "throw out", I rank. If my random 30 all had weak balance sheets, I would just take the strongest, if I was sorting on that.You could for example rank by P/FCF and pick the best few. Again, there is no proof this will help or hurt your performance. Mostly I do it for the psychological benefits: it keeps me interested and participating even I feel bad about the market.
What I do is check the CAPS rating and start there. I start with the 4 and 5 stars.
Yep, that's what I'm doing this month. For example, my random market cap for this month is 242 and there are 6 five-star stocks out of the list of 30: Mrkt Cap MF CAPSCACI International Inc. CACI 1,299.16 5Cisco Systems Inc CSCO 99,697.50 5Dolby Laboratories Inc DLB 3,524.52 5Kulicke and Soffa Ind KLIC 835.68 5ManTech Internatl Corp MANT 825.15 5Vaalco Energy Inc EGY 421.54 5So I picked 3 out of these, since I already had the other 3. As an interesting note, of the 30 there were 6 fives, 6 fours, 5 threes, 11 twos, and 2 ones. Pretty evenly distributed!
Mrkt Cap MF CAPSCACI International Inc. CACI 1,299.16 5Cisco Systems Inc CSCO 99,697.50 5Dolby Laboratories Inc DLB 3,524.52 5Kulicke and Soffa Ind KLIC 835.68 5ManTech Internatl Corp MANT 825.15 5Vaalco Energy Inc EGY 421.54 5
very interesting short list. i have one of these on my list.
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