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Author: JoshRandall Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 734568  
Subject: Re: NCAA Teams Likely To Get #1 Seed Date: 1/25/2013 3:32 PM
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Miami? Wow, I don't know. If Gonzaga gets a 1 seed then the 
college hoops is seriously down this year. 

IU and Michigan are vulnerable, but as I say that the Big Ten 
is an absolute death march this year. There are NO easy outs 
in that conference this year.

I don't know how they come up with their probabilities but 
let's take look at the teams you mention and their current 
rankings for RPI and Sagarin:

               RPI     RPI-SOS     Sagarin     Sagarin-SOS

Miami           3          1         15               3

Gonzaga         8         10          9              15

IU             15         45          4             128 

Michigan        5         22          3              36


At this time, IU seems more vulnernable than Michigan. Indiana has
played an easier schedule and their RPI is not in the top 10,
but this is just over half of the season.

Miami has playd the toughest schedule in the country relative to
all other D-1 teams thus far and has a very good RPI,
although the Sagarin overall rating is not in the top 10.

Gonzaga thus far tops both IU and MI in RPI&Sag strength of
schedule. But SOS alone means little, you have to win games too.

Most of the time, NCAA seeding rests upon a team's RPI. 
The committee places greater emphasis on that than other criteria.
So at this point in time, the seeding from best to worst likely
would be:

Miami
Michigan
Gonzaga
IU
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