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Author: Hohum77 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3222  
Subject: Mid Dec 2008: Tanker Update Date: 12/16/2008 1:52 AM
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I started last month with Aaarggh!, so this month deserves Aaaarggh! X2
Initially, my favorite tanker company seriously disappointed me, but after review, I changed that to disappointed and dropped the "seriously" off. Other than the Teekay group, the other tanker companies have reported, so I will review Q3 results.

The data--

Stock	31-Dec	15-Apr	15-May	13-Jun	15-Jul	15-Aug	15-Sep	15-Oct	14-Nov	15-Dec 
ATB 22.13 22.96 23.88 23.00 21.97 18.72 16.51 8.51 09.77 10.95
DHT 12.24 11.36 11.11 10.27 9.24 9.18 7.75 4.15 04.63 5.59
FRO 48.00 50.35 61.56 63.01 61.82 57.94 45.32 32.49 29.55 28.02
GMR 24.45 24.69 28.16 25.38 25.16 24.42 22.89 11.99 13.61 14.86
NAT 32.82 31.83 38.90 37.76 37.82 39.37 30.27 25.94 33.31 32.77
OSG 74.43 73.07 82.43 78.09 78.36 70.06 63.27 40.13 34.96 38.84
SFL 27.71 28.24 31.29 28.49 29.14 27.56 20.63 14.01 12.60 11.73
TK 53.21 45.29 49.89 45.86 39.88 34.65 29.31 18.87 13.86 15.88
TNK 22.00 18.00 23.81 21.84 22.36 18.82 17.63 10.31 08.65 10.09
TNP 37.00 31.50 35.54 36.33 35.60 34.06 31.65 22.89 21.68 19.50
TOO 25.15 21.81 22.11 19.85 18.16 15.79 13.22 9.37 09.24 10.50
VLCCF 24.15 27.02 31.93 31.48 30.45 28.94 27.55 15.60 13.83 14.59


Let's start with the breaking news.
FRO is adding its spot Suezmax vessels to the Gemini Pool, a TK backed tanker pool. Good or bad? Not sure yet, but obviously the pool arrangement of two tanker biggies can build clout.
Figure FRO is helping that pool at least double in size
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Frontline-and-Teekay-Agree-to-...


Let's talk Q3 results
Now, it's true that Q3 is typically a weak quarter, but after factoring in the nasty free-fall and partial recovery, it turned out to be a decent results quarter.

- NAT had a really weak Q3 last year (lots of vessels in dry dock Q3 last year). The company showed
some real improvement over last year, and the dividend increase is
probably reflective of that-- $0.40 => $1.61
Going forward, NAT seems well-positioned, with zero debt and
no vessels in dry dock in 2009. I missed the Q3 dividend, but I got a
great NAT entry point below $25. If I knew it was going to go up, I would have placed a bigger order ;)

- OSG also had a very nice quarter. Their crude tankers are their workhorses (67% of revenue, 85% of income). The 2 ULCC vessels were not great revenue generators, but it looks like that will change in 2009. Those two vessels are being converted in Jan 2009 and start operating as FSOs (Floating Storage Offloading) later in the year. and generating gobs of revenue. Lots of asset sales in Q4 2008 and Q1/Q2 2009, but I don't know how much drops down to investors.

- At first, I was really disappointed with FRO. I wasn't expecting the $3.00/sh like Q2, since Q2 was a special quarter. I
lowered my expectation to ($1.50 - $2)/sh, so the actual $0.50 was quite disappointing. But then I changed my view slightly. Why?
1. With the additional vessels, Q3 revenue numbers are not that far off from the first two Q's of the year, actually a little higher.
2. My model for FRO had said $6 dividend, and they actually delivered that in 3 quarters. The option to recognize Capital gains with a $5.50 dividend was available thru late September.
3. Ok, here I'm reaching a little. That debt gap should be worrisome, but I don't think FRO had planned it that way. The Top Ships vessel purchase came on the scene at about the time and altered the
equation.
4. Long term Hohum Long term. FRO is thinking someone will need a newbuild in 2010 or 2011. Plus, FRO/SFL need to replace those
Single Hull vessels.

- That drill-ship cash-flow looks good for SFL, $5+ M in one quarter and will probably remain consistent over multiple quarters.
Then the two drilling rigs will also kick in.

- The Teekay stocks also look appealing, I came close to nibbling on TOO


Hohum
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