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Author: LLackey Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5980  
Subject: Midcap Column Headings Date: 2/19/2005 10:23 PM
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I thought it might be time to update the column headings post.
             Price    10Yr    10Yr  Price/    5Yr     5Yr  Price/  07-09   07-09    EPS  Buffett  05ROE  Altman    EMA    EMA  FScr  FScr
Sym Date 2/18 Down Up 10YDwn Down Up 5Y Dwn Down Up Delta IntVal >2Std ZScr 13D 50D Fisc TTM Industry Name
CREE 1/14 23.39 43.34 145.85 -46% 43.02 133.22 -46% 73.02 245.72 46% 7.53 TRUE 24.12 24.06 28.41 8 6 SEMICOND Cree, Inc.
OSG 12/10 59.81 107.71 202.89 -44% 66.24 137.03 -10% 67.19 126.56 126% 255.91 TRUE 2.23 58.55 56.79 7 8 MARITIME Overseas Shipholding
SRP 2/11 10.3 17.91 24.28 -42% N/A N/A N/A 27.68 37.53 223% -65.59 FALSE N/A 10.10 9.90 4 6 UTILWEST Sierra Pacific Res.
ROL 12/10 24.04 31.53 45.79 -24% 28.02 42.03 -14% 38.64 56.13 26% 31.18 FALSE 5.86 24.70 25.20 8 6 INDUSRV Rollins, Inc.
NBL 2/18 64.86 84.97 142.33 -24% 61.78 104.39 5% 64.53 108.09 20% 23.66 FALSE 2.09 62.02 60.25 8 7 OILPROD Noble Energy

Sym, Industry & Name are pretty self explanatory.

Date is the date of the last data update from Valueline.
Price (date) is the 4:00PM closing price of the stock on the date indicated. The source of this data is Yahoo.

10Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

10Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. Both upside and downside are calculated using method outlined in TTD book. Also a discussion of calculating the upside and downside can be found at http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20916205&sort=whole

Price/10YDwn is the price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.

5Yr Down is the 5 year downside price. The company must have at least 4 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.

5Yr Up is the 5 year upside price. Based on Ken Lee's (Dowbuys) findings that the 5 year method works as well as the 10 yr method and also tends to pick more stocks during long bull markets.

Price/5Y Dwn is the price divided by the 5 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.

YY-ZZ Down (Where YY-ZZ are 2 and 4 years in the future) is the downside price which is calculated using the projections of Book Value and ROE for 20YY-20ZZ.

YY-ZZ Up is the long term future upside price.

EPS Delta is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters. I depart from the normal TTD method which is to use the VL sheet figures. I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which is updated as soon as new earnings are reported.

Buffett IntVal is the "discounted cashflow valuation" that Buffett uses as a quick and dirty intrinsic value calculation. This is discussed on pages 77-78 of "Trouncing the Dow".

YYROE >2Std (Where YY is the current year) is part of my margin of safety consideration. This is not backtested or discussed in TTD. I compare the current year's ROE versus the last 10 years of ROE data. If the current ROE is greater than average(10 Yr ROE) + (2 * stdev(10 Yr ROE)), then this column is YES, else it is NO. This tells me that the stock's ROE is much higher than it's historic average.

Altman ZScr calulates a score which is fairly accurate in predicting future bankruptcy. The lower the score the more likely the company is to go bankrupt in the next year. According to Altman's 1968 research there are two bounds: < 1.81 bankrupt within 1 year and > 2.99 survived at least 1 year. Between those two bounds is a risky gray area where the company may or may not make it.

EMA 13D & EMA 50D are the 13 day and 50 day exponential moving averages.

FScr Fisc calculates Piotroski's F-Score by comparing the last two fiscal years.

FScr TTM calculates Piotroski's F-Score by comparing the last complete fiscal year with the last four quarters. More on the Piotroski score can be found here at http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=21094577&sort=whole.

- Lee
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