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and you get the estimated $ spend on drugs. Then allocate by disease area, based on demographics, and estimated breakthroughs in science. Example, I would expect cancer to become a chronic manageable disease in 10 yrs, which would imply a large increase in the diagnosis of cancer (since people wanna know what they can control) and a reduction in hospital costs for cancer.. and so on.
Once you get to the estimated $ spend per thera area, then you can estimate what piece of the pie a certain drug will get.
I know this sounds very very imprecise, but to paraphrase Ben Graham- I'd rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong.
Happy investing!
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