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Author: KudieM Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5910  
Subject: More on the rumors of a buyout Date: 10/13/2006 10:41 AM
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http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/061012/telecoms_h3c.html?.v=2

So, can anyone comment on these possible scenarios and evaluate the likelihood of any of them:

1-COMS shares will go down b/c they'll have to pay more for a bigger stake in H-3C if a bidding war gets going. The only thing going for COMS right now seems to be it's cash pile, it's not making any $$$ w/o H-3C so I don't feel it can let a private firm scoop up a significant portion of it. Can it?

2-Private firms do come in and scoop up a big share and force or try to force some possitive changes at COMS to make it profitable for the sake of the joint venture.

3-This is covered in the article. Huawei just wants more for H-3C so is using the private funds as sort of an appraisal service to hedge on COMS.

4-One of these private equity funds comes in and buys us all out and we go home with a few extra chinckles in our pockets.

On 1- I don't like the thought of pushing profitability out further for COMS. They haven't made $$$ since I've owned them but seem to be on the brink of it now, so if it gets pushed out another couple or few quarters, I'm not totally bent out of shape, just not real happy either.

On 2- If it forces a turnaround at COMS w/in a year, cool, if not, I'll sell and move on.

On 3- I don't like this play. COMS paying more for less of a stake. If I owned Huawei, I'd let it go, but I don't, so I think this is bad for COMS-only owners.

On 4-Cha ching! Yay! hehehe

Anyway, just my personal $.02. I'd love to hear others' takes. Cheers!
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Author: bigdoginvestor Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5903 of 5910
Subject: Re: More on the rumors of a buyout Date: 10/13/2006 2:31 PM
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Anyway, just my personal $.02. I'd love to hear others' takes. Cheers!

....actually, as I recall from last week, it's your personal $5.12 (per share)......

I think you've pretty much sussed the 4 most likely outcomes, Kudie. Since I got out last week at nearly my original buy price I no longer have a dog in this fight, but.......

....I VERY RARELY would sell at a loss. you're already in the game at $5.12. If I was in your position I'd just sit on in for a while and see what comes of this ongoing, rolling buyout rumor. You may in fact get lucky and be able to ka-ching! the register at a gain in a near future.

If not, just hang in there until COMS crawls back to your 5.12 buy price and pull the plug on it........again, 3 CEOS in a 10-month span signals major internal issues at COMS - in addition to the known issues.

There are plenty of better (and also safer) equities out there IMHO....

regards,
BDI

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Author: KudieM Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5904 of 5910
Subject: Re: More on the rumors of a buyout Date: 10/13/2006 2:40 PM
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Exactly. That lousy $5.12 buyin. Otherwise I'd already be out of the game. I don't think it's H-3C, though, COMS itself as an ongoing concern is the fundamental problem. I can't judge whether they themselves are a sinking ship (like the mentioned 3 CEO's in a years time) just hoping to prop themselves up with a "real" concern, H-3C, or hoping H-3C makes them look better for a buyout pick. Yeah, personally, I like the buyout prospect better for myself, but again, with the cash they have sitting around, if they make a play to buy more of H-3C with that cash, it makes 3COM look even worse for my $5.12 investment.

Dang, I did better at the table last weekend throwing my $$$ into the pot than I am with 3COM today!

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Author: foolme3x One star, 50 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5905 of 5910
Subject: Re: More on the rumors of a buyout Date: 10/16/2006 1:10 PM
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My .02, have you looked at selling some $5 calls. With the price at/above $5 you might get a nice amount that would cover you cost. If it gets exercised at least you get your money back and if not(meaning it closes below $5 on expiration date)then you can sell more calls. Right now, the Nov $5 calls are selling for .45 ($45.00/contract before comm.)that could significantly reduce your cost.
LOL,
David

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Author: foolme3x One star, 50 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5907 of 5910
Subject: Re: More on the rumors of a buyout Date: 11/28/2006 7:18 PM
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Time for some humility and an apology,
since writing the above post, I have learned that LOL means Laughing Out Loud, which is how I will use it from here forward. However, at the time I thought it meant Lots Of Luck. Semantics can make or break you,
Sorry if I upset anyone,
David

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