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Much will also depend on the safety of US Treasuries...

As an aside

Interesting little analysis I just saw yesterday, showing that
the max&probable upside and max&probable downside risk profile (on a
mark-to-market price basis) of Treasuries at current yields is almost
identical to that of writing naked index puts 25% out of the money.*

Assuming that approximate equivalence is so (it looked about right to me),
the conclusion is clear: if you think either one of those is too risky, don't do either.

Jim
* A little bit worse, actually, since the puts assumed repeatedly written
ones which would compensate for inflation over time, which the bonds wouldn't.
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