Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: keahou Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 377  
Subject: Musings Date: 9/17/2006 1:46 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
We are in the midst of the historical "pits" for the market in general for the worst monthly performance of the yr. Not guaranteed of course. Oct is what the typical Joe on the street will tell you is the worst month. Sept factually has been the month in recent decades. As the market has been a forward looking creature, this chart shows that response gravitating to late Aug for the norm for the past 5 yrs in general.

http://tinyurl.com/fsr2v

Somewhere down the road, look for Oct to regain the lead as the forerunning plays out.

Another characteristic, the Jan-Apr rally, followed by the sell in May market litany, has failed the seasonality gurus as is generally shown in the chart above.



So, late Aug this year appears to again have been a good time to "Bet the Farm". The previous 5 yrs on average have had a great seasonal run from late Aug thru early Jan. This trend again appears to be intact. Almost looks as if "Sell In Feb and go away" is more current.

So, the point of this rambling is that if you generally agree and are inclined to place wagers on LEAPs, now might be a good time to do so.

JMHO of course. The general disclaimer applies about doing your own DD before investing your own funds.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: keahou Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 362 of 377
Subject: Re: Musings Date: 9/17/2006 3:22 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
A positive sign that now may be the time for LEAPs, is the fact that almost 3 months have past since todays posts. What did he say? Buy when nobody wants them?

3 candadates for your perusal:

1) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tm

A very high price on this stock. A few LEAPs at the 100 strike for 2008 at $19 look attractive. Down from $124 in May. Look at the news:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=TM

2) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tsra

The mighty have succumbed: MU and IFX. The rest will follow. Liscensee fees and royalties could exceed market expectations. Consolidation complete after that accomplishment. News:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=TSRA

3) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=eln

Elan's MS drug, Tysabri returned to market 7/19/06. This is an extremely rare event in the annuals of the FDA. TEVA and other competing drugs firms have had a sometimes not too subtle of a "Scare" agenda in an attempt to blunt the uptake of this champion of efficacy for the MS patient. In Tysabri's previous 11/04-2/05 market exposure, only the US market was in play. The EU has approved use and Germany in particular is apparently very enthusiastic.

Elan has Wyeth as their partner in their Alzheimers drug developement of AAB-001. Friday, Wyeth announced positions for overall supervisor of this drug and another position for the responsiblity for its production. Phase 3 is rumored to be near implementation. Lots of political heat on the FDA to "Get with it". Look at Fri's action, almost a "White Marubozu.

Optional candadates:

A) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=uaua

133 million shares. Q3 #'s came in with a $700 million increase in cash equivalents. Nearly $1 billion in Q3? Shed 20+ billion obligations during bankrupcy. Market may soon pick up on this.

B) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rmbs

Down from $140/share in 2000. A light at the end of the litigation tunnel? That would be the catalyst. Dicey as always.

Mine, what are yours?


Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: keahou Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 364 of 377
Subject: Re: Musings Date: 9/21/2006 7:21 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
B) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rmbs

Down from $140/share in 2000. A light at the end of the litigation tunnel? That would be the catalyst. Dicey as always.


Latest developements where a RMBS patent is being challenged.thru the USP Office. Decision by the patent office whether or not to accept the challenge due on or before 11/06. They might agree to a review which could cause the stock to take a hit.

Be advised.

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement