No. of Recommendations: 1
my biggest regret was not having cash on hand to scoop up the many bargains that were to be had in 2009.

There's a name for this fallacy, but I can't think of it.

If you had a lot of cash on hand to scoop up bargains, that means that during the going-up period you had a large allocation to cash. That cash allocation gave you zero-gains during the run-up.

How clever is it to give up a gain from 30 to 100 so that you can buy the bargains that fell from 100 to 70? (Numbers made up.)

You can't look only at what you could have got, you've also got to look at what you gave up.


No fallacy involved at all. We had sold a piece of real property just a few months earlier and used the proceeds to pay off the remainder of a mortgage, so yes, I could have had the cash without having touched liquid assets during the going up period and current cash is a combination of proceeds from the sale of another property as well as accumulated dividends from AAPL. AAPL didn't start paying dividends (again) until 2012.

And it's not a gain from 30 to 100, it's more like a gain from $1.38 (split adjusted from early 1999) and $172.22, today's close. I could go back to 2009 and look at the lows of some stocks I wish I had had the cash for, but it's water under the bridge and I'm letting the cash accumulate as there will be a bear market some time in the near future.

OK, all that cash on hand means foregoing some minor gains during the current run up. Why the hell should I care? The long term gains ( > 10 years ) are more meaningful, and are many multiples of the 30 point spread in the hypothetical you brought up.

In any case, not panicking during 2008/2009, like so many did, was far more lucrative even than having the cash on hand to make some purchases.

Churchy
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