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Author: forloveofmoney Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 47760  
Subject: Re: overvalued Date: 6/26/2000 7:43 PM
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My God, is it legal for you Americans to spew such nonsense and not get hit by some SEC law? If you try, you can create a decent bear argument for Qualcomm (not that I'd agree with it). But people get paid to dish out this kind of drivel?

TMFOtter wrote:

As I have said several times before, this company's unwillingness under most circumstances to manage its shareholders' expectations is likely going to keep it beholden to the unreasonable moves and self-fulfilling prophesies of the momentum investors. And that's too bad.

When have they failed to live up to the expectations they set? The Chinese did everything they could to make it look like Unicom was going to go through with a full-fledged CDMAone rollout. Then, when they backtrack out of it in standard Chinese fashion, you blame Irwin Jacobs and co.? As for handset subsidies, Qualcomm doesn't run the Korean government. How were they supposed to know that subsidies would be repealed?

On the other hand, I don't remember Qualcomm ever missing earnings estimates. When they saw a slowdown in sequential ASIC shipments, they let investors know about it three months in advance. I do remember them once saying about a year ago that they expect their ASIC market share to drop from 90% to about 65%. I suppose that they were wrong on that one. With Nokia now buying from them, it should soon be above 95%.

Anthony Thornley, Qualcomm's CFO, publicly announced that a bankruptcy by troubled Globalstar (Nasdaq: GSTRF) , owned 6.4% by Qualcomm, would impact its bottom line by about $0.10 per share.

OK, so we decrease all the future cash flows we expect out of each share of Qualcomm by a whopping ten cents. Yep, that justifies the tremendous fallout in the stock.

This is just an unfortunate by-product of a company that has taken on religious status for its proponents (including some Wise analysts who made their mark predicting its run last year)

Poll here: how many of you have over half your assets in Qualcomm? Not many, I suppose. And how many of you think all of Qualcomm's detractors, Nokia, Ericsson, etc. are completely worthless companies. Not too many there either, I'm sure. This "holy war" thing is really overdone. Except for a few fundamentalists on each side, it really doesn't exist. Perhaps TMF Otter should've simply thought about the fact that supporters of any stock that has to endure as much FUD as Qualcomm has have to be staunch and adamant in their beliefs in order not to give in to the pressures of the market. That's far from taking a religious demeanor to one's investment. Of course, the Fool, for all of its contrarian posturing, never seems to invest in anything except companies that are near or close to their all-time highs, so they wouldn't know any thing about this.

And where does The Motley Fool go off criticizing "The Wise" analysts who touted Qualcomm last year? Not that I'm a fan of Wall Pieczyk or anything, but these words are coming from the same site that hyped Celera, hundreds of millions in losses and all, all the way up to 275, always dodging the valuation issue, before the biotech bubble burst.

and that of a demon to its critics and competitors

Of course it is. People love to pour salt on an open wound. Sadly, it's human nature to do so, just as it is to jump on the bandwagon when all's going well. It's funny how quiet all of these "critics and competitors" were back in late December, and it'll be amusing to see how quiet they'll get again once 3G deployments start taking place.

You've got a better chance solving Northern Ireland's problems than successfully arguing that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Why don't you ask stocksure, foxhedge, and TinkerShaw that question? Over the past couple of months, they've all convincingly argued the middle ground in this debate, that Qualcomm will still have some short-term problems, and that it's still a couple of years away from attaining the kind of amazing growth everyone wants out of it, but when that growth comes, they're going to make a killing in the process. It seems so obvious to me, to them, and to so many others on this board. But pundits, for all their talk about taking a long-term view on a situation, never see it that way. Qualcomm's either so good that it requires a $250 year-end price target or so bad that a few short-term problems justify putting a $50 price target on it.

First, Qualcomm's run up late last year was SO overdone, that now, 70% off the high, it is still overvalued.

Now, uh, what does this require me to type? Oh, yes...

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!

A company with a trailing P/E of about 68, growing earnings at a 70% annual clip, and possessing vital intelectual property for nearly all of the world's future wireless networks is overvalued? Yet companies in the Motley Fool's Rule Breaker portfolio such as Celera, possessing only a few million in trailing revenues, and Amazon, with over $2 billion in debt (leading to a Debt/Equity ratio of 84!) on a market cap of $11 billion, and no profits to be seen, aren't overvalued? What is this, a live version of a new movie: Ernest Runs the Fool?

The end news is that Nokia's decision is really good for both Qualcomm and Nokia.

No, I disagree! I hate their decision! I want to see Nokia, another investment of mine, continue to produce lousy CDMA phones! I want to see Nokia and Qualcomm drown each other in lawsuits related to W-CDMA patents!

This is the brilliant conclusion that The Motley Fool puts out on their articles? Is it something that everyone on this board but Sportsman hadn't already figured out two seconds after initially reading the Nokia/Telson press release?

The Motley Fool is a great community site for investment discussions, but it really has to stop trying to come up with its own crack analyses on the subjects that are discussed by its community members, for nine times out of ten, the community members have shown the ability to make them look like fools (lower-case). The more they try to to throw in their own opinions on these subjects, the harder it'll be for them to differentiate themselves from the members of "The Wise" whom they mock with such reckless abandon.

Regards,
Mark
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