Obama wins the usual suspect states for 205 electoral votes.
Romney wins 227 electoral votes from the heartland and the south.
I see 106 electoral votes as a toss-up.

The CNN 2012 Electoral Map was my guide.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

538 electoral votes - 270 electoral votes needed to win

Toss-up
-------
Wisconsin     10
Michigan      16
Ohio	      18
Pennsylvania  20
Virginia      13
Florida	      29
----------------
Total        106

With 227 electoral votes,
Romney needs Florida and Ohio - 47 votes
or Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan - 44 votes
or Florida and Pennsylvania - 49 votes
or Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Virginia - 43 votes
or Florida and Ohio - 47 votes

Hope my math is correct. I'm sure you folks will correct me if needed.

Mike

Obama
-----
State 	Electoral Votes
Hawaii	         4
California	55
Oregon	         7
Washington	12
New Mexico	 5
Minnesota	10
Illinois	20
New York	29
New Jersey	14
Maryland	10
Delaware	 3
DC	         3
Connecticut	 7
Rhode Island	 4
Massachusetts	11
Vermont	         3
New Hampshire	 4
Maine            4
------------------	
Total	       205

Romney
------
State 	Electoral Votes
Alaska	        3
Nevada	        6
Idaho	        4
Utah	        6
Arizona        11
Wyoming	        3
Montana	        3
Colorado	9
North Dakota	3
South Dakota	3
Nebraska	5
Kansas	        6
Oklahoma	7
Texas	       38
Iowa	        6
Missouri       10
Arkansas	6
Louisiana	8
Indiana	       11
Kentucky	8
Tennessee      11
Mississippi	6
Alabama	        9
Georgia	       16
South Carolina	9
North Carolina 15
West Virginia	5
-----------------
Total	      227