Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: TwoCybers Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 19371  
Subject: Re: y2k concerns Date: 10/7/1999 10:54 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
My spouse in responsible for y2k stuff at a bank so I do hear a good deal about it. Based on all the information I have my feeling is there will be some issues which if they are in your backyard so to speak will be "serious". I am not at all concerned about banks, stock markets or major stock brokers. When you get to the local stores that use electronic cash registers, that could be another issue. I suspect there will be some utility some place that will have a problem, but it will not take the engineers long to manually flip the switch. There probably will be gas stations and ATMs that will have not fuel or cash over the weekend. The banks will have cash and it will just take a few hours for the truck to bring out more. Fuel delivers may have to wait until the Monday or Tuesday after 1/1/2000.

With regard to stock prices, I think there will be factors which could have an effect. For example lots of people will get a few extra pills for their perscriptions. Many people are going to fill their gas tanks. Well when y2k becomes a nonevent in Januray these same people will buy less medicine and one less tank of gas. Although this does not sound like much, it is a lot. If say 10% of the population does it that is a very large portion of an average montly demand. There will be demand in the 4th quarter above average which will lead to business inefficiencies. Then there will be less demand in the first quarter which will lead to either less manufacturing or more inventory. None of this is a surprise to business. Their only problem is trying to guess how big the issue will be. If you could tell the air line exactly how many people would not fly on 1/1/2000 and how many "extra" people were going to fly each day later in the month, it would be no problem.

I am hopeful these distruptions will be small and that all the "experts" won't panic and sell everything because of a penny or two in earnings. But trying to guess what the Wall Street experts will decide is not easy.

When you say your investments "are mostly volatile stocks", I don't know if you mean just stocks which are more volatile then say short term bonds or if you mean specific stocks whose volatility is much greater then the Dow-Jones or S&P 500. In either case I would not be surprised to see price movements in the range of what has happened over the period from April 1999 through early October. Now that movement may well happen in a period of a few weeks rather then a few months.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Pencils of Promise - Back to School Drive
"Pencils of Promise works with communities across the globe to build schools and create programs that provide education opportunities for children."
Managing Your Wealth
Our own TMFHockeypop from Rule Your Retirement fame on the TV show Managing Your Wealth.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement