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Author: fakena Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3296  
Subject: Re: BQI Date: 7/8/2009 11:23 PM
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My thoughts on oil sands business in general terms of making money while being operated as a business...is that it hasn't been determined if its even viable for the best managed companies. The average,mediocre,or poor would fair even worse than the best. Meaning the lousy go bankrupt first, then the poor, and so on, maybe even the best going bankrupt before profits can be generated.

So where are these guys on lousy to best on management ability? I'd say its hard to say, or should I say guess. But then short term I'd say it doesn't matter as long as the business can stay alive for five years.

My own personal guess is that it'll be more than a decade from now before even a handful of companies show a profit...even with $200 barrel oil!

But, these companies have been trading on price of oil and perceived break even price, not profit making ability. It looks like $100 plus per barrel of oil brings on optimism in price of shares. Approaching $150 a barrel would probably have this company trading at above $5 again. If this is a certainty in your opinion within five years then BQI would yield a great return for you.

And these are my my guess: 1/ oil will easily be priced near or above $150 within five years. 2/ No oil sand business will have reasonable expectation of continued profitability then or even a decade from now.
and 3/ This company will likely trade above $5 again before it goes bankrupt someday. (Unless its bought out by someone first)

But I'm not willing to buy these oil sand companies myself yet or if ever. However, those are my thoughts. Lousy long term investment, but should allow you a five or six bagger within five years.
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