No. of Recommendations: 1
nacohn Date: 5/19/00 8:24 AM Number: 685


The TMF Retirement Portfolios represent the very worst of introverted foolish stupidity in action and should never be considered by any rational investor.

<<Hmm, that is a pretty strong statement.>>

Yes, it is, and I meant every word of it.

<<Can you help support that with some more thorough explanation?>>

I can certainly try, however please stay with me as it may be a bit long.

In attempting to put things in context, first one has to admire TMF for even allowing me to post my occasionally contrarian points of view. I believe that TMF has done a great deal of good along the lines of educating many of us about things we perhaps should have already known and reminding us of things we may have forgotten or never fully understood as completely as we should have.

Nonetheless, because TMF has done so much good and has been so well received and followed by so many that too many now have forgotten to take what they say with a grain of salt and appear to have forgotten to take the time to even understand what is going on, let alone criticize it for themselves, TMF now has at least a moral obligation to not deliberately deceive and potentially lead astray those innocents who have come to overly depend upon TMF.

In view of the fact that we are dealing with people IN RETIREMENT who may often depend solely upon their retirement portfolio for their ECONOMIC SURVIVAL, it is totally wrong, completely irresponsible, and potentially quite harmful for TMF to advocate those official TMF Retirement Portfolios which suggest that 100% of a retiree's stock portfolio should be invested in only four (4) stocks.

I believe that you can understand why I feel so strongly the need to give warning. The TMF Retirement Portfolios are entirely too risky for the retired investor!

In addition, it you would take the time to view about the last nine months of the more intelligent posts on the Dow Investing - Foolish Four board, you will learn that a number of diligent posters have determined that the Foolish Four was apparently never what it was cracked up to be and apparently, out of its relatively narrow sample period, NEVER DID PERFORM AS ADVERTISED!

Although I will admit that I was really saddened to learn that the Foolish Four apparently was merely the product of enthusiastic datamining and was flawed, I must say that I am even more saddened that TMF has refused to recognize that reality and continues to blindly advocate and actively promote the Foolish Four as if it were viable. I fear that, ultimately, TMF will hurt those who can least afford to be hurt and will lose a great deal of its hard-earned creditability if it does not come to its senses.

<<I am actually quite interested in this ...>>

Interested is good, however you must look before you leap, seriously question everything you hear, and critically analyze what is really going on.

<<PS - I doubt I would do anything like those portfolios, ...>>


<<... right now I am leaning more towards some sort of bond mix (perhaps a simple ladder), ...>>

In appropriate moderation, ladders are good, however do not neglect to keep a portion in cash at short term interest.

<<... primarily index funds (SPY and QQQ), ...>>

Excellent! You may also wish to consider DIA.

<< ... a Rule Maker allocation, and a small (5 - 10%) selection of NEW Rule Breakers.>>

Well, perhaps, in moderation, if you think you understand them, however do keep in mind that a little spice goes a long way and can brighten up a dish, but that too much can go too far and really drag it down.

Best wishes!



P.S. You might wish to prowl around the Retirement board a bit. I did have a few things to say about those TMF Retirement Portfolios when they came out and a few months ago did come up with a perhaps more rational approach which I may have called something like a relatively liquid portfolio of indexed assets.

I think I even bothered to come up with some relatively rough and fairly short term historical comparisons before I finally realized that, rather than thinking rationally, most seemed to prefer to chant the old chants and repeat the old party line.


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