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http://news.yahoo.com/nate-silver-joe-scarborough-wanna-bet-...

Political polling guru Nate Silver is so confident in his statistical models that he just offered to bet MSNBC's Joe Scarborough \$1,000 that Barack Obama will win re-election. Scarborough, you may recall, criticized Silver's math earlier this week, saying that "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes." He was specifically talking about Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, which shows Mitt Romney with just a 1-in-4 chance of becoming president.

Silver has spent the week firing back, criticizing political pundits for
not understanding how odds and probability work and aggressively defending his method against critics. As the week has progressed, his model has only shown Obama's chances of winning increasing, which has not coincidentally increased Silver's confidence in the outcome. (As of this morning, Five Thirty Eight gives Obama a 79 percent chance of winning, with a final Electoral College total over 300.)

The bolded portion is the key question in my mind. Is Silver's prediction based on probability math or is it an effort keep conservative voters home?

I guess we find out Tuesday.
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Silver has spent the week firing back, criticizing political pundits for not understanding how odds and probability work and aggressively defending his method against critics. As the week has progressed, his model has only shown Obama's chances of winning increasing, which has not coincidentally increased Silver's confidence in the outcome. (As of this morning, Five Thirty Eight gives Obama a 79 percent chance of winning, with a final Electoral College total over 300.)

If Nate were both confident in his model AND understood odds & probability, he'd offer \$3000 to Joel's \$1000.

By only offering Joel \$1000 : \$1000, Nate is essentially agreeing with Joel that Obama only has a 50 : 50 proposition of winning.

Wow! Even the Obama supporters / butt kissers who claim otherwise really don't believe Obama has this in the bag.
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