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Author: chrisbafool Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 500  
Subject: Need some clarification Date: 1/10/1999 1:18 PM
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Gentlemen(and/or ladies): Is the rail industry so cyclical as to sell at such low multiples, ... Where is the macro outlook for the industry. Everyone is talking abouth the sale of the rail division and re-allocation of the proceeds. I just don't know anything about the industry. Would rather ask than be a fool. I usually watch such stocks, wait and miss the upside. Advice/comments/thoughts much appreciated.


Chris
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Author: HighL One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 500 of 500
Subject: Re: Need some clarification Date: 1/11/1999 8:20 AM
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A couple of lnks for you -

Railcar industry data - The decline in deliveries in 1995/1996 hit JAII pretty hard - also caught JAII at a very bad time, right after some major acquisitions.
http://www.rpi.org/arcistat.htm - also hit the HERE link at the top of that page for the press release.

The fourth quarter 1998 data will be posted about 5 days before the JAII earnings release. Rumors on the boards are that JAII's backlog has increased further from 9/98's record level.

Also comparing JAII to others as prepared by market guide - The PE ratio of JAII should be higher, the d/e will hold it down some as does the off balance exposure of having senior management involved in their own enterprises (TMB Industires). http://www.marketguide.com/mgi/ratio/A05B9.html

Two ways to play JAII - short term - catch the quick 20-30% boost that has been happening regularly in the three weeks before earnings release. Or buy an hold for the ultimate correction in the price or Begel's sale.

Good luck.

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