No. of Recommendations: 60
FYI, the new Essential REIT has been released, but not yet posted on the REIT Cafe website. If any of you are interested, and if not posted there within the next day or two, please let me know and I will post it on our Board.

The following summarizes the current issue, and explains why it will be its last. Thanks for your support and encouragement over the years.


I recently read Justin Fox's new book, “The Myth of the Rational Market,” and was gratified that his conclusion – markets are usually efficient but not all the time – agreed with my long-held beliefs. Market prices pretty much reflect known information and consensus forecasts. Thus the ability of any investor, no matter how experienced or savvy, to do better than the market requires an uncanny ability to forecast the shape of future events in the economic, financial and even political worlds. That is very, very difficult, and requires luck as well as skill. As one advisor recently noted, those who earn a living by looking into a crystal ball often end up eating a lot of glass.

With that thought in mind, I have, in this issue of The Essential REIT, laid out three possible economic, financial and real estate scenarios, and have speculated on how our REIT stocks might perform over the next 12 months under each of them. We are all just guessing, of course, but I hope the discussion will be entertaining and just slightly helpful.

As I have explained in the last section, this issue of "The Essential REIT" newsletter will be my last. I have been writing it, in one form or another, for the past 20 years, and have reluctantly concluded that – despite my “retirement” (or perhaps because of it) – I no longer have the time to do it justice. I may, however, continue to write occasional essays on REITs and REIT investing and, if so, I will be happy to make them available to you. Just email me at Thanks for your encouragement and support over the years.
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