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Author: blesto Big red star, 1000 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5162  
Subject: New day Date: 7/2/2012 7:59 PM
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I do like the Global Gains 25cent postage stamp icon.
Instead of putting in my 2cents, I can put in 25! :-)

Did I hear cringing?

Well, it's a new day here on the now public board.

My favorite GG picks to follow were/are;

Swire Pacific (NASDAQOTH:SWRAY.PK)
Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones (NYSE:BLX)
Nokia Corp (ADR) (NYSE:NOK)
Country Style Cooking Restaurant Chain (NYSE:CCSC)

And a Global company that was never to my knowledge a GG pick but interests me.
Even though they have a manufacturing facility in New Jersey, they're mainly based in China. Jinpan International Limited (NASDAQ:JST)
I think they're worthy of some Global Gains scrutiny.

Anyway, enjoy the new day of open to all Global Gains.

blesto,
My 25cents
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Author: vls100 Three stars, 500 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5099 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/3/2012 10:40 AM
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Hi blesto,

I notice that you own NOK. I have to decide whether I should accept my short puts at 5 this month, sold at the time when the rec came out, thinking I couldn't go wrong with those puts with a breakeven at 4-ish. (Shall have listened to Anurag!) Would you care to share your current thoughts on NOK? I don't really have much choice, to accept the shares as mentioned, sell the shares afterward or keep the shares and wait for NOK to go to zero, or to buy back the puts nearing expiration date, no doubt would be at a big loss equivalent to owning shares.


New day indeed!

vls

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Author: vls100 Three stars, 500 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5100 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/3/2012 11:02 AM
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I mean Should have listened to Anurag

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Author: vs101 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5101 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/3/2012 3:52 PM
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I do not believe NOK is a great investment. Take it for what it is worth. In 1997, Apple was in a similar situation. People thought it would go bankrupt. Aswath Damodaran (Professor at NYU) bought Apple as an investment which he calls, way out of the money call option. He held till about recently and made a killing on it.

He is doing the same with Nokia, however I do not believe that the same outcome is guaranteed or even viable.

Apple had the right vision, they just had to execute on it. Nokia is a problem child of the smartphone revolution. They are like Kodak, where Kodak failed to capitalize on digital cameras and got killed.

Apple had the closed model right from the beginning. Hardware / software all together. This gives the user a complete experience and they can control what people are running on their devices, which gives them and the developers a great way to handle the content. With music, movies, phone and internet in all one place, Apple is in control of everything a consumer needs in a device. It is near impossible for Nokia to imitate that.

If this is money you can gamble with, just leave it in there. Maybe one day Nokia will shine. If not, I would recommend selling and buying Apple instead. I think even from here, Apple will beat Nokia in the long run.

Just my 2c.

Vish

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Author: vls100 Three stars, 500 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5102 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/3/2012 4:58 PM
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Hi Vish,

I didn't know Damodaran owns NOK, that means I will be in good company:)

I have AAPL shares already, not nearly enough though.

Thanks for your thoughts.

vls

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Author: blesto Big red star, 1000 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5103 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/3/2012 9:07 PM
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I mean Should have listened to Anurag

Yes I quite agree. I'm still following NOK, but,
yes but, I have to admit I'm out of NOK as of right now.

I bought in two lots. First on 4/30/12 at $3.63 then on 5/24/12 at $2.73
Trying to catch a falling knife as they say.
Sold the first lot on 5/31/12 at $2.69 for a loss. Hmpf! I'll be able to write off on my taxes next year.

Why sell? I was starting to lose confidence in NOK and JPM has been on my radar and I always wanted to buy if the price was right. After that plunge, I had a little extra cash and also used the proceeds from the NOK sale to buy a position in JPM.

I was still holding on to my 2nd lot of NOK because, hey you never know. Then a recent IPO caught my attention; The Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG)
IPO'd in May. An alternative asset investment group. I'm still trying to get my head around them, but the way they're structured with the compensation of the management of each of their funds is very shareholder friendly, I should say Unitholder as it's a limited partnership. I am gonna request a board for them if one hasn't been already to elaborate further on.

Anyway, since I wanted to take a chance on CG, I was able to scrape up a little more cash and I pooled it with my sale of my 2nd lot of NOK on 6/13/12 at $2.80 for a small gain. Incidently that particular lot was beating the S&P at that time at about 2.9%

My investment in JPM I believe was that I had to strike while the iron was hot. They're definately going through a rough patch but I'm taking the chance that they're way undervalued and the price will recover before the year is out.
My investment in CG I believe has the potential to turn out to be a beautiful partnership as a unitholder.

All that said, NOK is still on my short list to reinvest in again. This bit of quick trading is not what I usually do. I always buy with the intention of holding for at least a year or more. NOK was the exception for me. As of right now I'm more comfortable watching from the outside. On another note it's getting close to the expiration of my current mobilephone plan and I'm thinking of getting the Nokia Lumia on my next plan.

Best,
blesto

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Author: blesto Big red star, 1000 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5105 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/3/2012 11:17 PM
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One more thing. :-)

TMFCogitarius posted this on the GGS: Nokia board;
http://boards.fool.com/a-juicy-apple-payout-30130216.aspx?re...

Looks like Nokia is gonna make some money from Apple!

Nokia is not out of the game yet.

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Author: vs101 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5106 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/4/2012 11:17 AM
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One big driver for people to invest in Nokia is the current price tag of $2 and change. That compared with the price it fell from recently is a very big driver for most to invest. I do not think that is the right way to think about this and invest in this company.

The difference between Apple and Nokia is that Apple is self sufficient and self sustaining since they have built an ecosystem which is almost like a closed loop. Soup to nuts experience. If you have read Steve Jobs biography, there is one thing that Steve says in the book. When Apple was not as big as they currently are, they went to Adobe and requested them to make software for the MAC, but Adobe refused. At that point, Steve learnt that if you are dependent on anybody else, you could get your head handed to you. So he went ahead and created something that will never make him dependent on someone else. Case in point is the failure of Flash.

Nokia is very dependent on Microsoft for their smartphones. If Mr. Softy changes its plans, which like Zune, could be pretty possible, Nokia would be in a very bad spot. Investing in a company, that is totally dependent on someone else is slightly risky.

The bottom line is, Nokia failed to see the smartphone boom and sure enough, the market killed it. That is the risk of investing in tech companies, who fail to see the next big thing. Apple has a similar risk. After Steve Jobs, there is no innovator, but he has built a machine that will keep turning, so the current management has not much to fear. It is the success or failure of new products that will define where Apple will go from here. Even if all new products fail, Apple is still pretty cheap.

Good luck investing in Nokia. Maybe one day Nokia will shine too.

Vish

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Author: vls100 Three stars, 500 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5107 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/4/2012 11:39 AM
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Thank you very much blesto for your input. Thinking for the moment to roll my puts to August to gain sometime. Congrat on your getting out of NOK in time. Good luck to your other investments.

Best,
vls

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Author: vls100 Three stars, 500 posts Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5108 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/4/2012 11:41 AM
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Vish, all good points. Thanks vls.

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Author: vicki1024 Big red star, 1000 posts Global Fool SC1 Yellow Captain Motley Fool One Everlasting Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 5110 of 5162
Subject: Re: New day Date: 7/5/2012 2:11 PM
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Nokia used to control their entire ecosystem. In the heyday for GSM the market was closed to all but a small number of players, and Nokia was the king.

Vicki

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