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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 56829  
Subject: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 10:39 AM
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Over on the BOGLEHEADS bulletin boards they are talking about new research from Wm Bengen, one of the original "discoverers" of "the 4% rule". Bengen now says that 4% may be too stingy if market PEs are low at initial withdrawal (retirement). He is sticking by his original finding, however, that 4% is never too much, even when PEs are high. I don't have the link but apparently he was quoted about this in a Businessweek article.

Full disclosure: To get good input from EVERYONE concerned about RETIRE EARLY issues, I am crossposting this on both CAMPFIRE and LIBERAL versions of RETIRE EARLY here.

By the way, someone over there commented about Hocus always harping about valuations. This seems to actually prove Hocus wrong...that 4% is safe in the highest stock valuation period but even more than 4% is safe if stocks are at normal valuations or cheaper.
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Author: intercst Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13135 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 1:17 PM
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Here's a link to the Business Week article.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_28/b40920529...

One problem I see with Kitces' analysis is that for any given P/E or P/E10 over the last 130 years you'll have at least 3 or 4 data points from a 4% SWR to a 11% SWR. For example, when the PE10 at the start of retirement was 14 we have 4 data points from 4.25% to 9.75%. How does the retiree know if he is in the PE=14 environment that supports an 9.75% SWR versus the one that will only support a 4.25% SWR? That's why no matter how many contortions people go through to boost their SWR, when you compare it to the historical record, you still end up with about 4%.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/pestudy1.html

intercst

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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13136 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 3:34 PM
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Could you, in a nutshell, explain this PE10 thing?

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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13137 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 3:40 PM
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By the way, a few other things:

1. Thanks for the reply, Intercst. I don't frequent MOTLEY FOOL that much any more, and when I do it's usually at CAMPFIRE and not here. That being said, your initial work of about 10 years ago got me on the right track regarding saving and future retirement etc. So thanks for being around.

2. Even if this new work by Bengen STILL shows that about 4% is the top SWR (according to what you said here...I don't yet understand PE10 so I am not sure why at this point), it does seem to contradict Dr. Bernstein and another "former poster" who say to be "bulletproof" 2% is the right number. This new work suggests that 4% is the bulletproof number and that something higher might be "safe enough" in many cases. Put another way, this new work seems to suggest that 4% is the floor rather than 2%.

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Author: ziggy29 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13138 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 3:58 PM
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>> Could you, in a nutshell, explain this PE10 thing? <<

P/E10 looks back at the average earnings over the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation, instead of just the previous year. This tends to smooth out the anomalies caused by recessionary periods where using P/E (which can also be called "P/E1" in this context) to measure valuation is useless or worse, and commonly captures the current valuation relative to earnings in all phases of typical market cycles.

#29

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Author: intercst Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13139 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 4:21 PM
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Daryll40 asks,

2. Even if this new work by Bengen STILL shows that about 4% is the top SWR (according to what you said here...I don't yet understand PE10 so I am not sure why at this point), it does seem to contradict Dr. Bernstein and another "former poster" who say to be "bulletproof" 2% is the right number. This new work suggests that 4% is the bulletproof number and that something higher might be "safe enough" in many cases. Put another way, this new work seems to suggest that 4% is the floor rather than 2%.


4% is "bulletproof" based on the historical record. The people claiming a lower than 4% SWR are assuming something worse than the Great Depression and Crash of 1929.

intercst

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Author: ziggy29 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13140 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 4:24 PM
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>> The people claiming a lower than 4% SWR are assuming something worse than the Great Depression and Crash of 1929. <<

There are an awful lot of people who are assuming that such a period is now underway. Might be a good time to get into tinfoil futures.

#29

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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13141 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 4:43 PM
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>> Could you, in a nutshell, explain this PE10 thing? <<

P/E10 looks back at the average earnings over the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation, instead of just the previous year. This tends to smooth out the anomalies caused by recessionary periods where using P/E (which can also be called "P/E1" in this context) to measure valuation is useless or worse, and commonly captures the current valuation relative to earnings in all phases of typical market cycles.

#29


So what is that number NOW?

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Author: ravvt Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13142 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 6:06 PM
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So what is that number NOW?

... as of 12/07, the P/E10 ratio was 26.07 according to the Shiller data referenced below.

You could approximate today's P/E10 ratio by using the Dec 2007 P/E10 ratio to determine the 10yr adjusted earnings. The ratio of today's S&P500 price to those adjusted earnings would yield an estimate for today's P/E10.

10 yr Adjusted earnings = Dec S&P price / 26.07 = 1479 / 26.07 = $56.75

Today's S&P500 price = 1244.69

Estimate for today's P/E10 = 1244.69 / 56.75 = 21.9

According to the Kitces rules, the SWR for this kind of "overvalued" market condition would be 4.5% (Kitces Fig. 9)

... if the market continues to crater in chunks as it has been doing for the past month, the Kitces approach would allow for a 5% SWR (i.e. P/E10 < 20.0 => "fairly valued" market condition)

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
http://www.kitces.com/retirementwhitepaper.php

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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13143 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 6:39 PM
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I need to study the article and read more. This is FASCINATING and seems to be the missing piece. I don't quite yet understand Intercsts comments that it still boils down to 4%, but I am encouraged that this DOES seem to suggest that Dr. Bernstein may be way too pessimistic as 4% is the floor of safety and not 2%.

Thanks for answering that question and doing the analysis for me.

Yup, the market seems to be beating us up every day.

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Author: intercst Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13144 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 6:45 PM
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Daryll40 asks,

>> Could you, in a nutshell, explain this PE10 thing? <<

P/E10 looks back at the average earnings over the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation, instead of just the previous year. This tends to smooth out the anomalies caused by recessionary periods where using P/E (which can also be called "P/E1" in this context) to measure valuation is useless or worse, and commonly captures the current valuation relative to earnings in all phases of typical market cycles.

#29

So what is that number NOW?


If you read the Business Week article that I generously provided a link to, you will see a giant graphic in the middle of the page with "the number" in about an 80-point font.

....jezz

intercst

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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13145 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 7:42 PM
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Sorry! I printed it but haven't gotten to read it yet. I guess I get lazy knowing that YOU generally do all the number crunching!

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Author: markr33 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13146 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 8:46 PM
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I also wonder why we choose to use PE-10. I know we generally like decimal numbers because of the decimal nature of ours fingers (and toes), but for this purpose why not use something midway between the average business cycle (which period could also be argued), but something like PE-7 or PE-8 may make a little (and just a little if at all) more sense for this particular purpose. I wonder what the PE-8 or PE-7 is right now, because that would have begun after the market began falling in 2000.

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13147 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/9/2008 11:20 PM
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I don't know about all those fancy formulas ya'll are talking about but my withdrawal rate as of today is 3.71%. I just take Intercst's word that it's safe. "As long as the future is no worse than the past."

My portfolio has just got to last as long as I do. I call my strategy the "three legged stool" approach to early retirement. IRA SEPP + Pension + Social Security.

As long as Seattle Pioneer keeps his big mouth shut about "means testing" social security I feel pretty confident my plan is going to work and I'm not going to end up living under a bridge or in a dumpster.

I recently started collecting my pension and now I've got 7 more years to social security.

Art

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Author: ziggy29 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13148 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 9:04 AM
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>> I wonder what the PE-8 or PE-7 is right now, because that would have begun after the market began falling in 2000. <<

Good point. The market could probably rise sharply for the next two years and still PE10 would *drop* compared to today because the way overvalued years before the March 2000 peak would fall off.

#29

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Author: buzman Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13149 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 10:51 AM
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Art, you also have taxpayer subsidized health insurance along with a wife that still works.

That is a Pentagon shaped approach if you think about it.

Just saying,

buzman

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Author: ziggy29 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13150 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 11:15 AM
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>> Art, you also have taxpayer subsidized health insurance along with a wife that still works. <<

Good point. That makes it much easier to breathe more easily about your own retirement security. Many retirees -- early or not -- don't have that luxury.

#29

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13151 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 11:46 AM
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Art, you also have taxpayer subsidized health insurance along with a wife that still works.

That is a Pentagon shaped approach if you think about it.

Just saying, buzman

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Yes you are right. I've thought about it and I am very thankful for it, but I also realize how fragile those two sides of the pentagon are. Anything can happen in life. Bonnie could get sick, or just want to retire. It could happen. She drives about 38 miles to work every day and (if it were me) I'd get tired of that real quick. She says she wants to work as long as possible but to be honest her lungs aren't in the best of shape. She was in the hospital a couple of years ago and almost died. It scared the heck out of me.

So when I'm making my plans I don't take anything for granted. I try and plan for the worst case scenario. That's one of the reasons I'm "for" some kind of universal health care. I know that "there but for the grace of God go I!" Not to mention my family is full of people who have no health insurance. My bee-keeper brother will be 64 years old this year and he has no health insurance. I think it's just nuts but he says he can't afford it. He lives on the edge.

I'm just trying to ride that "pentagon wave" as far into shore as possible. What I mean by that is that I'm very careful not to do anything to rock the boat. Until I'm 65 years old and elegible for medicare I'm keeping my fingers crossed that nothing bad will happen otherwise I could be joining my brother in the ranks of the uninsured. To be honest I'd like to see some kind of socialized medicine for everyone. Like what my FIL has with the VA. What a deal!

If I were King first thing I'd do is sell off a few bombers and destroy all the cluster bombs and land mines. Those are two of my pet peeves. It should be illegal to even make those things. They are so disgusting! I'd bring home all the soldiers from overseas, close bases all over the place, and open up free trade with Cuba. The only people our trade embargo hurts are the poor people of Cuba.

Art

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Author: ishtarastarte Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13152 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 12:18 PM
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Like what my FIL has with the VA. What a deal!

Like I keep telling you, the VA system is NOT all that wonderful for everyone.

Ishtar
(vet)

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13153 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 12:19 PM
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Like I keep telling you, the VA system is NOT all that wonderful for everyone. Ishtar(vet)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


If the alternative is "nothing" which is what my brother has, I'd take the VA. At least it's "something". Something is better than nothing.

- Art

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13154 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 12:31 PM
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<<Like what my FIL has with the VA. What a deal!
>>



<<If I were King first thing I'd do is sell off a few bombers and destroy all the cluster bombs and land mines. Those are two of my pet peeves. It should be illegal to even make those things. They are so disgusting! I'd bring home all the soldiers from overseas, close bases all over the place, and open up free trade with Cuba. The only people our trade embargo hurts are the poor people of Cuba.

Art
>>


Well Art, if you were actually a grunt in a foxhole and facing the opportunity to shoot it out face to face with a large enemy force, I'll bet you'd wish for a jet fighter to come along with a load of napalm or cluster bombs to wipe out that enemy force without you having to shoot it out man to man.

The opportunity to destroy huge military forces with a minimal loss of life by our own forces is one of the best reasons for the large military expenditures we make.

Right now I'm reading a biography of Lyndon Johnson's years in the US Senate, which details the impact of Senate power on American history. Among those were the rejection of Woodrow Wilson's League of Nations and potent American isolationism, which arguably helped create WWII.

American power has created a world market in which powerful countries don't have to go to war to sell their wares and earn a living ---something almost unheard of in world history. Napalm and cluster bombs have been among the means that have allowed that system to develop.


While you can argue around the edges about how American power has been used, on the whole it is enabling huge populations to live far better than they would had that power not been used. And they will live a lot worse when it finally decays and disappears, too.



Seattle Pioneer

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13155 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 12:37 PM
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<<Art, you also have taxpayer subsidized health insurance along with a wife that still works.

That is a Pentagon shaped approach if you think about it.

Just saying, buzman
>>


"A workman is worthy of his/her hire." Even public employees earn their paychecks.

Art's wife is not a public employee. As for making health insurance a tax deductible business expense for employers, that is one of many peculiarities of tax law politics creates. Most middle income workers are very generously taxed by government one way or another, and usually in many ways.



Seattle Pioneer

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13156 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 1:58 PM
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Well Art, if you were actually a grunt in a foxhole and facing the opportunity to shoot it out face to face with a large enemy force, I'll bet you'd wish for a jet fighter to come along with a load of napalm or cluster bombs to wipe out that enemy force without you having to shoot it out man to man. - SP
---------------------------

Why would I need to be a grunt in foxhole in the first place? Why is the United States always sticking it's nose in other countries business? Who chose us to be the world's policemen?
________________________________________________________________________

Right now I'm reading a biography of Lyndon Johnson's years in the US Senate, which details the impact of Senate power on American history. - SP
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Lyndon Johnson, what an maroon! He's the idiot that got us deeply embedded in the Viet-Nam quagmire. Why in the world didn't he pull us out of that mess when he had the chance. Money? Votes? Whatever. If there is such a thing as free will I place a lot of the blame for Vietnam on Lyndon Johnson.

Art

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13157 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 5:32 PM
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<<Lyndon Johnson, what an maroon! He's the idiot that got us deeply embedded in the Viet-Nam quagmire. Why in the world didn't he pull us out of that mess when he had the chance. Money? Votes? Whatever. If there is such a thing as free will I place a lot of the blame for Vietnam on Lyndon Johnson.

Art
>>


Jimmy Carter tried your approach, Art. He undermined the Shah in Iran and facilitated the Iranian revolution. The result in the short run was the hostage taking episode which led to Ronald Reagan's election.

Longer term, Iran just shot off a bunch of medium range ballistic missiles that could hit Europe and Israel, and continue their work to develope an atomic bomb to put on the missiles as a warhead.

Iran has been promoting terroism in the middle east for decades and attacks on American citizens in particular.

Jimmy Carter's efforts to avoid conflict may yet lead to a nuclear war with Iran as a leading actor.


Art, had you been the one getting the wakeup call in the White House in June, 1950 saying that North Korean forces were invading South Korea on a massive scale, would you have done nothing?


How about had you gotten the wake up call that the Soviet Union had closed ground transportation into Berlin in 1948? Hand over Berlin to the Soviets to avoid conflict?

Soviet missiles in Cuba --- 1962. Are you cool with that?


It may be that there have been some conflicts we could avoid. Political leaders don't always make the best decisions, but often it's very hard to know what the best decisions may be.


But saying we aren't going to study war anymore isn't going to make war go away.




Seattle Pioneer

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Author: buzman Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13158 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 5:38 PM
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But saying we aren't going to study war anymore isn't going to make war go away.




Seattle Pioneer
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Neither is invading Iraq, bright boy.

buzman

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Author: ziggy29 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13159 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 5:40 PM
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>> Neither is invading Iraq, bright boy. <<

How that logically follows from an assertion that at least some military intervention is necessary, is beyond me.

Even if one thinks Iraq was a horrible mistake, it doesn't negate the premise that sometimes it's inevitable.

#29

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Author: buzman Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13160 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 5:53 PM
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Even if one thinks Iraq was a horrible mistake, it doesn't negate the premise that sometimes it's inevitable.

#29

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
There is no thinking invading Iraq was a horrible mistake.

Invading Iraq was a horrible mistake.

This was a war of choice, bad choice.

buzman

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13161 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 7:22 PM
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Art, had you been the one getting the wakeup call in the White House in June, 1950 saying that North Korean forces were invading South Korea on a massive scale, would you have done nothing?How about had you gotten the wake up call that the Soviet Union had closed ground transportation into Berlin in 1948? Hand over Berlin to the Soviets to avoid conflict? Soviet missiles in Cuba --- 1962. Are you cool with that?It may be that there have been some conflicts we could avoid. Political leaders don't always make the best decisions, but often it's very hard to know what the best decisions may be.But saying we aren't going to study war anymore isn't going to make war go away. -- Seattle Pioneer
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Whenever I've taken an online religion test it says the religion my beliefs are closest to is Quaker. I am an extreme pacifist. I firmly believe that God is in control, that everything happens for a reason, and that He is in control. I honest to God believe that.

I am not at all sure there is even such a thing as "free will" and lean heavily towards fate and predestination. I'm fairly well convinced that free will is a big fat illusion.

Art

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13162 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 7:22 PM
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<<But saying we aren't going to study war anymore isn't going to make war go away.




Seattle Pioneer
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Neither is invading Iraq, bright boy.

buzman

>>


I can give you an iron clad guarantee that Saddam will not be back.



Seattle Pioneer

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13163 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 7:36 PM
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I can give you an iron clad guarantee that Saddam will not be back.
-- Seattle Pioneer

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


There are 1.2 Billion Muslims in the world and they tend to have huge families. There will be a never ending supply of Muslims to fight for at least the next several centuries. We are not going to hang them all. They will never quit. It's part of their religion. We invaded their country. We are on their land.

We should stay within our borders and work on making the United States safe and secure. The time, effort, money, and people we are wasting on overseas military incursions would be better spent on securing our own borders and taking care of business within the United States.

Art

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Author: FCorelli Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13164 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 8:05 PM
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We should stay within our borders and work on making the United States safe and secure.

No profits or free stuff in that

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13165 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 8:59 PM
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<<We should stay within our borders and work on making the United States safe and secure. The time, effort, money, and people we are wasting on overseas military incursions would be better spent on securing our own borders and taking care of business within the United States.

Art
>>


Were we to adopt a position of isolationism again, the world would very rapidly return to regional empires built around the power of one country dominating what area it can, and going to war against neighboring empires, a pattern we've seen for thousands of years.

In particular, Iran would be invading neighboring Persian Gulf states to monopolize the world's oil supply, which would provoke a war with China, Europe and/or Japan ---to say nothing of the United States.


You can argue in favor of isolationism if you like, Art, but it's completely impractical. There are alternatives to the current American dominance, but American isolationism is not one of them.


For good or ill, the United States guarantees the free flow of oil and resources around the world by sea. That has freed the rest of the world from shutting down world trade through control of the thousand pinch points world trade depends upon. No one else has ever done that in world history, not even the Brits at the height of their empire.

Right by itself, that's a significant part of the prosperity of the world.

Thirty years ago we had the Shah doing that job in the middle east with our support, and he was footing the bill as well. Unfortunately, Jimmy Carter took hid eye off the strategic ball, arguing that the Sha wasn't strong enough on "human rights." That gave the Ayatollah the chance to establish the rogue Iranian regime, the source of endless problems.


Thank you, Jimmy Carter! This was your most important strategic contribution to the world, creating endless problems, and Carter's own failure to win re election instead giving Ronald Reagan the opportunity to win the Presidency.




Seattle Pioneer

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Author: crassfool Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13166 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 9:12 PM
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Seattle Pioneer says

Thirty years ago we had the Shah doing that job in the middle east with our support, and he was footing the bill as well. Unfortunately, Jimmy Carter took hid eye off the strategic ball, arguing that the Sha wasn't strong enough on "human rights." That gave the Ayatollah the chance to establish the rogue Iranian regime, the source of endless problems.

When I see human rights put in quotation marks like that, I reach for my pistol.

The Shah was a cruel and murderous tyrant whose own people thirsted for his blood. Depending on him as a "strategic" asset was one more time the U.S. bought itself a future of bloodshed and hatred by supporting a bad guy just to get a little temporary advantage. See also the Somoza dynasty, Papa Doc Duvalier, Batista, the S

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 9:15 PM
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Ooops, hit the key too soon. Here we go again:

************************************************

Seattle Pioneer says

Thirty years ago we had the Shah doing that job in the middle east with our support, and he was footing the bill as well. Unfortunately, Jimmy Carter took hid eye off the strategic ball, arguing that the Sha wasn't strong enough on "human rights." That gave the Ayatollah the chance to establish the rogue Iranian regime, the source of endless problems.

When I see human rights put in quotation marks like that, I reach for my pistol.

The Shah was a cruel and murderous tyrant whose own people thirsted for his blood. Depending on him as a "strategic" asset was one more time the U.S. bought itself a future of bloodshed and hatred by supporting a bad guy just to get a little temporary advantage. See also the Somoza dynasty, Papa Doc Duvalier, Batista, the House of Saud (boy when that time bomb goes off it'll be a lulu) and oh yeah, Saddam Hussein.

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 10:26 PM
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For good or ill, the United States guarantees the free flow of oil and resources around the world by sea. - Seattle Pioneer
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In 40 years the oil will be, for all practical purposes, gone. Will we then care what happens? In 40 years will the United States care what happens to the rest of the world?

With no oil, will we be able to do anything about it? Will we fly our big jets on soybean oil? There isn't enough energy in ethanol to fly a jet it would have to be some kind of oil, either made from coal or vegetable oil.

Aircraft carriers, submarines, tankers, etc. All gone. No more need for any of them. We are burning the oil up now at ever increasing rates. In 40 years, all gone.

Artie

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/10/2008 10:29 PM
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The Shah was a cruel and murderous tyrant whose own people thirsted for his blood. Depending on him as a "strategic" asset was one more time the U.S. bought itself a future of bloodshed and hatred by supporting a bad guy just to get a little temporary advantage. See also the Somoza dynasty, Papa Doc Duvalier, Batista, the House of Saud (boy when that time bomb goes off it'll be a lulu) and oh yeah, Saddam Hussein. - crassfool
---------------------------


In 40 years time when the flow of oil has slowed to a trickle we'll be sealing up our own borders tighter than a drum to keep what resources we have left.

Artie

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/11/2008 12:47 AM
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<<The Shah was a cruel and murderous tyrant whose own people thirsted for his blood. Depending on him as a "strategic" asset was one more time the U.S. bought itself a future of bloodshed and hatred by supporting a bad guy just to get a little temporary advantage. See also the Somoza dynasty, Papa Doc Duvalier, Batista, the S

>>


Better the Shah than the Ayatollah.


Sometimes that's the choice you have.

How would you compare women's rights under the Shah vs under the Ayatollah? How would you compare treatment of US citizens taken hostage in our embassy for a year?

The Shah was doing a noble deed for humanity by repressing those religious extremists and preventing them from getting power to terrorize the world.

At present these heroes of yours are working hard to build atomic weapons and already have the missiles they need to launch them on Israel, which they have claimed every intention to destroy. It's the most likely nuclear war waiting to happen.


Yet it's just the regime you support.


Why am I not surprised?



Seattle Pioneer

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/11/2008 1:01 PM
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Seattle Pioneer says

At present these heroes of yours are working hard to build atomic weapons and already have the missiles they need to launch them on Israel, which they have claimed every intention to destroy. It's the most likely nuclear war waiting to happen.


Yet it's just the regime you support.


Why am I not surprised?


My first reply to this was FA'd, as I fully expected. Nevertheless, SP deserved it, I said it, and I'm glad.

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/11/2008 1:33 PM
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Better the Shah than the Ayatollah.


Sometimes that's the choice you have.


Better that the US had never staged the coup that put the shah in power in the first place.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat...

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/11/2008 3:52 PM
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My first reply to this was FA'd, as I fully expected. Nevertheless, SP deserved it, I said it, and I'm glad. - crassfool
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Why was it FA'd? Because you disagreed with someone? Said something someone didn't like? I've only FA'd a couple of posts in my life and that was right after 9/11. I was so P.O.ed (emotional) about what happened that I wasn't tolerating any disagreement. To be honest I wish I could go back and undo it because I'm really against censorship in any form. I'm sorry I F.A.ed the two posts I did.

Artie

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/11/2008 3:56 PM
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Better that the US had never staged the coup that put the shah in power in the first place. - GuildWarsQueen |

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat......



That's pretty much how I feel. I'm not so sure but that if we stayed out of it completely things wouldn't work out eventually.

It's going to be interesting in 40 or 50 years time when the oil is pretty much gone to see what happens with the world. I guess I won't be around to see it but it's going to make a drastic change on everything. There really is no other energy source that is dense enough (and cheap enough) to fly planes and ships to run on. I sometimes wonder if there might be a return to sailing ships plying the oceans with goods like in the olden days.

Art

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/11/2008 4:49 PM
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Artie says

My first reply to this was FA'd, as I fully expected. Nevertheless, SP deserved it, I said it, and I'm glad. - crassfool
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Why was it FA'd? Because you disagreed with someone? Said something someone didn't like?

I called him some kind of a hole, so the result was highly predictable. It's a direct personal attack, no matter how truthful it may be.

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/11/2008 10:01 PM
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The Shah was doing a noble deed for humanity by repressing those religious extremists and preventing them from getting power to terrorize the world.

As usual, SP, you've got it all backwards. It was the repression that created the extremists. People with religious and political freedom don't generally become terrorists. Without SAVAK (the Shah's secret police), the there would have been no Ayatollah Khomeini.

Churchy

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 12:37 AM
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<<The Shah was doing a noble deed for humanity by repressing those religious extremists and preventing them from getting power to terrorize the world.

As usual, SP, you've got it all backwards. It was the repression that created the extremists. People with religious and political freedom don't generally become terrorists. Without SAVAK (the Shah's secret police), the there would have been no Ayatollah Khomeini.

Churchy

>>


Were your theory true, it would have withered away over the past thirty years. That hasn't happened. Instead, a pro western regime was replaced by a permanently hostile anti western regime, motivated by religious extremism.

Nice try, but you, Jimmy Carter and others who applauded when the Shah was overthrown are responsible for creating this hostile and dangerous rogue state. Jimmy Carter was justly punished for his foolishness by being defeated for re election in the wake of the hostage taking episode, electing Ronald Reagan instead.

But the rest of you rogues have yet to be brought to the bar of political justice, and I see you are still trying to excuse these foolish policies thirty years later.



Seattle Pioneer

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 1:46 AM
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I called him some kind of a hole, so the result was highly predictable. It's a direct personal attack, no matter how truthful it may be.

The some kind of hole thing I could tolerate. It's the arrogance while ignorant (AWI) that I find most uncomfortable. . . or is that the same thing?

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 9:52 AM
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"Were your theory true, it would have withered away over the past thirty years. That hasn't happened. Instead, a pro western regime was replaced by a permanently hostile anti western regime, motivated by religious extremism."

You seem to have forgotten that, not long after the Shah was overthrown, Iraq invaded Iran.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq_War

Iraq was supported in this war by Sunni Arab nations and the United States. Nothing like a vicious 8-year war with a million dead to solidify a nation around its leadership.

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 12:13 PM
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Were your theory true, it would have withered away over the past thirty years. That hasn't happened. Instead, a pro western regime was replaced by a permanently hostile anti western regime, motivated by religious extremism.

Nice try, but you, Jimmy Carter and others who applauded when the Shah was overthrown are responsible for creating this hostile and dangerous rogue state. Jimmy Carter was justly punished for his foolishness by being defeated for re election in the wake of the hostage taking episode, electing Ronald Reagan instead.

But the rest of you rogues have yet to be brought to the bar of political justice, and I see you are still trying to excuse these foolish policies thirty years later. --- Seattle Pioneer

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There will always be wars and rumors of wars. After the cold war was over the war with Islam intensified. There will never be a time when there is total peace on earth. Not going to happen. It is a waste of time to worry about it. Duality and separation are inherent and inescapable properties of the physical universe and can not be escaped. It has everything to do with "why we are here."

Art

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 4:49 PM
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Iraq was supported in this war by Sunni Arab nations and the United States.

Also worth mentioning that in order to appease Hizbollah, Ronald Reagan sold the Iranians advanced weapons. The Iranians learned that terrorism pays well, and have been a problem ever since.

For his role in encouraging state-supported terrorism against Americans, Oliver North became a hero to the far right.

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 6:48 PM
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I am the original poster. Having been away for a few days, it's amazing how this thread has morphed from a discussion on new SWR research into a debate on Jimmy Carter and the Shah of Iran.

That being said, Carter is proof that Darwin was right. His failure to flex the American muscle in Iran until it was too late unleashed what became much of the world's problems today. Yes, the Shah was a thug but he was LESS a thug than the religious thugs since. The lesson learned is that sometimes the thug you know is better than the alternative thug that you don't know.

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 8:28 PM
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>> I am the original poster. Having been away for a few days, it's amazing how this thread has morphed from a discussion on new SWR research into a debate on Jimmy Carter and the Shah of Iran. <<

It's unfortunate that no on topic stuff can avoid being turned into political tripe.

I just posted an on topic note next door about how many people are afraid of 4% withdrawal rates today because of the current market and economy, and the very first response turned it into politics.

I hate election years.

#29

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 9:32 PM
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It was the repression that created the extremists. People with religious and political freedom don't generally become terrorists.

This is a very interesting (and true) observation, and it makes me realize why the current enemy is so dangerous. It's because the repressors, the extremists, and the terrorists are all pretty much one and the same this time around!

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Author: ChurchyLaFemme Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13188 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 11:17 PM
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Were your theory true, it would have withered away over the past thirty years. That hasn't happened. Instead, a pro western regime was replaced by a permanently hostile anti western regime, motivated by religious extremism.

Horse puckey. What happened is that the Palahvi regime created its fundamentalist Islamic mirror through jack-booted repression.

Nice try, but you, Jimmy Carter and others who applauded when the Shah was overthrown are responsible for creating this hostile and dangerous rogue state. Jimmy Carter was justly punished for his foolishness by being defeated for re election in the wake of the hostage taking episode, electing Ronald Reagan instead.

This crap is why right wingers and their militant ignorance are held in such massive contempt. What you seem to forget is that Carter allowed the Shah into the US for cancer treatment in late October, 1979 when other countries wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. This so enraged the Iranian revolutionary movement that the takeover of the US Embassy followed in early November. Had Carter refused entrance to the Shah or returned him to Iran for trial as the new Iranian government demanded, none of what followed in Iran would have happened. Relations with Iran might not be lovey-dovey, but they would be considerably less strained than they are now.

I rejoice when tyrants are overthrown. I will dance in the streets when Robert Mugabe is strung up by his balls, the the military dictatorship in Myanmar is overthrown and the generals hanged. And I will be ecstatic when the Islamic fundamentalists in Iran are tossed out.

But the rest of you rogues have yet to be brought to the bar of political justice, and I see you are still trying to excuse these foolish policies thirty years later.

You mean the insistence on fundamental human rights? Oh, that's right, I forgot. Only you are to be allowed freedom. Anybody in any other country who wants that same freedom is to be repressed because freedom for other people might mean that we might be freely subject to criticism and we just can't have that now, can we now?

Churchy

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 11:24 PM
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You seem to have forgotten that, not long after the Shah was overthrown, Iraq invaded Iran.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq_War

Iraq was supported in this war by Sunni Arab nations and the United States. Nothing like a vicious 8-year war with a million dead to solidify a nation around its leadership.


There was that, too. And it was such a good policy to support Saddam Hussein during the entire war only to suddenly discover he wasn't really the kind of ally we wanted when he invaded Kuwait in 1990.

That war pretty much took up the entire Reagan administration. Yeah, that was a big foreign policy win for us. Were I Iranian, I think I might have been a tad annoyed at that faux pas.

Churchy

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 11:32 PM
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Yes, the Shah was a thug but he was LESS a thug than the religious thugs since. The lesson learned is that sometimes the thug you know is better than the alternative thug that you don't know.

And how many times has that stupid idea come back to bite us? We support one thug and the result is that we eventually get thugs that are on the other side.

Cuba - Batista and Castro

Iran - Shah and Islamic fundamentalists

Nicaragua - Somoza and Sandinistas

Iraq - first Saddam was our thug and then he was on the other side.

Shoot, we supplied arms to the Afghani mujadahin because they were anti-Soviet and looked how well that turned out.

But lets just go on supporting thugs just because they happen to be the enemies of our enemies. It's worked so well in the past.

Churchy

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/12/2008 11:47 PM
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I just posted an on topic note next door about how many people are afraid of 4% withdrawal rates today because of the current market and economy, and the very first response turned it into politics.

I hate election years.

#29


What'd you expect? The economy and politics are intimately entertwined.

That being said, those who are afraid of 4% withdrawal rates are wusses. Every time things get a little tough and remain tough (more or less) for a while, people start expecting TEOTWAWKI and they may get it.

According to the Mayan calendar (well according to some people apropos the Mayan calendar), the world will end on 12/21/2012. That being the case, a 4% withdrwal rate is WAY too conservative. It's time to eat, drink and be merry. The party ends in about 4 1/2 years. Rather than reducing withdrawals, these yo-yo's should be drawing down their accounts at around 25%/year. Ya can't take it with you so you might as well spend it like there's no tomorrow since there won't be.

Me, I'm sticking with 4% more or less. I've read about too many predictions of TEOTWAWKI that just didn't come true. We even lived through one (01/01/2000). I know. I was at work watching for any signs of computer failure. It turned out to be the YAWN of a new Century.


Churchy

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Author: FCorelli Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13192 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/13/2008 12:16 AM
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Me, I'm sticking with 4% more or less. I've read about too many predictions of TEOTWAWKI that just didn't come true. We even lived through one (01/01/2000). I know. I was at work watching for any signs of computer failure. It turned out to be the YAWN of a new Century.

Churchy


HA, yes ain't that the truth? The only thing that I ever stop to contemplate vis a vis "Is 4% really safe", is the fact that in bygone years stocks used to pay realdividends along with all that stock market business. Nowadays they don't. Anybody ever do a back study on that possible effect?

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Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/13/2008 1:15 PM
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<<I rejoice when tyrants are overthrown. I will dance in the streets when Robert Mugabe is strung up by his balls, the the military dictatorship in Myanmar is overthrown and the generals hanged. And I will be ecstatic when the Islamic fundamentalists in Iran are tossed out.
>>


I am sure your friends and allies will be glad to do such things on your behalf.



<<You mean the insistence on fundamental human rights? Oh, that's right, I forgot. Only you are to be allowed freedom. Anybody in any other country who wants that same freedom is to be repressed because freedom for other people might mean that we might be freely subject to criticism and we just can't have that now, can we now?

>>


Replacing the Shaw with the Ayatollah replaced one autocrat with another, worse autocrat, and one that has used and uses terrorism to attack it's neighbors. It replaced a strongly pro western regime with a hostile, anti western regime.

I'm sure these are all things you applaude, judging from your comments.



Seattle Pioneer

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13194 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/13/2008 1:21 PM
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<<Cuba - Batista and Castro

Iran - Shah and Islamic fundamentalists

Nicaragua - Somoza and Sandinistas

Iraq - first Saddam was our thug and then he was on the other side.

Shoot, we supplied arms to the Afghani mujadahin because they were anti-Soviet and looked how well that turned out.

But lets just go on supporting thugs just because they happen to be the enemies of our enemies. It's worked so well in the past.

Churchy
>>


Yes, it has worked well in most cases. You might add that we used Stalins bloody hands to economize on the lives of Americans to beat Nazi Germany.

Don't forget our support of the Greek monarchy after WWII to defeat the Communist insurgency there.

In politics, you often do the best with the material you have at hand.


Seattle Pioneer



Seattle Pioneer

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Author: ishtarastarte Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13195 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/13/2008 1:53 PM
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TEOTWAWKI = the end of the world as we know it?

Ishtar

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Author: Howie52 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13196 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/14/2008 10:24 AM
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"Duality and separation are inherent and inescapable properties of the physical universe and can not be escaped. It has everything to do with "why we are here."

Art "

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This thread provides a fiar amount of evidence to support your
contention.

In a quite contentious manner as well.

Howie52
Two opposing views of reality and re-writing history to suppost each
view.

Folks seem to lose sight that the only successful Democratic Party
candidates or President were from the south. Senator Obama is not
but has the potential to select a Vice Presidential candidate from
the south. Either someone from the south or from the western
states would help the man.

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Author: Howie52 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13197 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/14/2008 10:36 AM
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"how many people are afraid of 4% withdrawal rates today because of the current market and economy"

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I keep going between a view that the credit issues and the fear
they've generated indicate that the time to buy has arrived - and
a view that we still have a few more months to go before folks
exit the markets wholesale - and then that would be the time to buy
equities.

I have a history of failing to catch a falling knife.

Howie52
And anymore, election years are every year.
Just think of how all the money spent on campaigning could have
been spent.

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Author: Volucris Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13198 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/14/2008 2:47 PM
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How the heck did a post on new research regrding safe withdrawal rates degenrate into a bunch of cr@p about Iran and Iraq?

Just wondering . . . . . . .???????

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Author: ziggy29 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13199 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/14/2008 2:53 PM
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>> How the heck did a post on new research regrding safe withdrawal rates degenrate into a bunch of cr@p about Iran and Iraq? <<

Mostly because some people are incapable of checking politics at the door, pretty much ever.

#29

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Author: Volucris Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13200 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/14/2008 3:39 PM
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Yup, I gave a quick scan and it looks like SP is the guilty one for starting it, but onve it started most found it difficult to not get involved.

Anyway . . . .I found the SWR reasearch interesting, but it didn't change my plan any.

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13202 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/14/2008 8:52 PM
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<<Yup, I gave a quick scan and it looks like SP is the guilty one for starting it, but onve it started most found it difficult to not get involved.
>>



Well, I'd award that honor to Art, who posted the following comment, to which I replied. It went on from there.


Seattle Pioneer



<<<<If I were King first thing I'd do is sell off a few bombers and destroy all the cluster bombs and land mines. Those are two of my pet peeves. It should be illegal to even make those things. They are so disgusting! I'd bring home all the soldiers from overseas, close bases all over the place, and open up free trade with Cuba. The only people our trade embargo hurts are the poor people of Cuba.

Art
>>


Well Art, if you were actually a grunt in a foxhole and facing the opportunity to shoot it out face to face with a large enemy force, I'll bet you'd wish for a jet fighter to come along with a load of napalm or cluster bombs to wipe out that enemy force without you having to shoot it out man to man.

>>



http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=26799253&sort=whole#2...

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13204 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/14/2008 11:38 PM
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Well, I'd award that honor to Art, who posted the following comment, to which I replied. It went on from there. --- Seattle Pioneer


Uh-oh! Busted. Caught red handed. Sorry! I need to be more careful. I knew that I should just keep my nose out of politics altogether. All it does is get me in trouble.

Art

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Author: Volucris Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13205 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 12:45 AM
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Well, I'd award that honor to Art, who posted the following comment, to which I replied. It went on from there.


You're right. I apologize.

Volucris

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Author: buzman Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13210 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 10:52 AM
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I think we should give Art a break, his comment made sense.

It went to being Jimmy Carter being the Anti-Christ and YKW came up with that nugget.

buzman

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13211 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 11:27 AM
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I think we should give Art a break, his comment made sense.

It went to being Jimmy Carter being the Anti-Christ and YKW came up with that nugget. - buzman

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Okay, I can't help myself. I'm not sure if this is "political" or not but here goes. . .

I went to High School in Atlanta, Georgia and then on to the University of Georgia and I ended up living in Athens, Georgia for ten years. When I look back at my life those ten years I spent in Athens, GA were the most fun and best years of my life. I have very many fond memories of Athens, GA. We left Athens to move to Knoxville, TN in 1982 but I think deep down in my soul I still think of myself as a Georgian. When we are driving south on Interstate 75 and I cross the state line into Georgia I get a warm feeling in my heart.

Now, all that being said, Jimmy Carter is a fellow Georgian and a fine man. It bothers me greatly when I hear or read people bad mouthing Jimmy Carter. I suspect he is most likely a better person than 95% of the rest of the human race. I measure a man by the kindness in his heart and Jimmy Carter does his best to spread peace, good will, and reduce conflict in the world. He honestly lives what the New Testament teaches.

A few years ago I saw a program on PBS where they were honoring Jimmy Carter and they were talking about his winning the Nobel Prize. It was such a beautiful program that it brought tears to my eyes. I felt some connection with him because we are both Georgians, even though I guess I'm just an "adopted" Georgian. Even though I've lived in Tennessee now for the greatest part of my life my blood still runs red and black (University of Georgia colors) and I will always have fond memories of the years I lived in Georgia.

Art

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13212 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 11:43 AM
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<<Now, all that being said, Jimmy Carter is a fellow Georgian and a fine man. It bothers me greatly when I hear or read people bad mouthing Jimmy Carter. I suspect he is most likely a better person than 95% of the rest of the human race. I measure a man by the kindness in his heart and Jimmy Carter does his best to spread peace, good will, and reduce conflict in the world. He honestly lives what the New Testament teaches.
>>


Winston Churchill once said somethin to the effect that "The sermon on the Mount is the last word in human ethics, but it is not that basis upon which ministers of government are given their portfolios."


Trying to use personal ethical systems as the basis for political decision making often works poorly, even disasterously. Carter didn't recognize that, and harmed the country as a result, in my opinion.



Seattle Pioneer

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Author: crassfool Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13213 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 12:06 PM
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buzman says

I think we should give Art a break, his comment made sense.

I think so too. It was appropriate for a board that has LIBERAL in its name. Unfortunately that name attracts folks who have no life and make up for it by yanking our chains.

The p-box is a pretty good solution, so is the FA.

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13215 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 12:48 PM
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Well, I'd award that honor to Art, who posted the following comment, to which I replied. It went on from there. --- Seattle Pioneer


I just went back and re-read the entire thread. My comment wasn't really that "political." All I said is that I'd get rid of land mines and cluster bombs and open up free trade with Cuba. I didn't mention any names or political parties, I was just saying how I'd fund some kind of Universal Health Care, which I think is very much a "retire early" topic.

No names, no parties. Nothing. Just how I'd fund health care.

Art

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Author: vickifool Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13218 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 2:17 PM
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It bothers me greatly when I hear or read people bad mouthing Jimmy Carter. I suspect he is most likely a better person than 95% of the rest of the human race. I measure a man by the kindness in his heart and Jimmy Carter does his best to spread peace, good will, and reduce conflict in the world. He honestly lives what the New Testament teaches.



I also greatly respect Jimmy Carter for living his ideals. I wish more Christians were as Christ-like as he is.

Vickifool

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13219 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 2:36 PM
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I also greatly respect Jimmy Carter for living his ideals. I wish more Christians were as Christ-like as he is. --- Vickifool
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Reminds me of the Ghandi quote, "I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ."

Because I go to Church with my wife's family, and I know a lot about the New Testament some automatically assume I'm a Christian. In actuality my beliefs are closer to being some kind of "new agey spiritualist" than a western Christian. I have a lot of beliefs that are definitely not modern western Christian.

Okay, I'll stifle myself and hush....

Art

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Author: Howie52 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13221 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 4:02 PM
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"I also greatly respect Jimmy Carter for living his ideals. I wish more Christians were as Christ-like as he is. --- Vickifool
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Reminds me of the Ghandi quote, "I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ."

Because I go to Church with my wife's family, and I know a lot about the New Testament some automatically assume I'm a Christian. In actuality my beliefs are closer to being some kind of "new agey spiritualist" than a western Christian. I have a lot of beliefs that are definitely not modern western Christian.

Okay, I'll stifle myself and hush....

Art "

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The Christian religion recognizes that Christ was and is unique and
that Christians as well as all others cannot be Christ-like.

The forgiveness of failings and failure based on faith rather than
by repetetive cycles or retributions or eliminating "unbelievers" or other actions of an individual is somewhat unusual in the world.

Howie52

Perhaps we do not have enough cheeks.

Stifling should be left to the weather.

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Author: jgc123 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13222 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 4:19 PM
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Also, despite the ability of some to rewrite history, Jimmy Carter started alternative energy initiatives which would have helped prevent the energy fix that we now find ourselves in. Reagan gutted them and Clinton and the 2 Bushes stuck with Reagan's "you can have your oil and consume it too" policies:

http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:SCPurYQWTHcJ:www.mother......

Carter wss the last president to tell the American people the truth they did not want to hear.

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13223 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 4:36 PM
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The Christian religion recognizes that Christ was and is unique and
that Christians as well as all others cannot be Christ-like. - Howie

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


I'm fairly well convinced that if there was a "Jesus" he was a near death experiencer who "died" on a cross, had fluid in his pericardium which stopped his heart, he had an near death experience, and when that soldier stuck that spear up inside him it pierced his pericardium releasing the pressure, then when they cut him down he flopped on the ground and that was enough to restart his heart.

When his mother and family bound up his body for burial they probably stopped the flow of blood. He was probably in a coma for three days and on the third day he woke up and walked out of that tomb and started teaching people what he experienced in his near death experience. There are many verses in the New Testament which remind me of stuff I've read in people description of their life review during their NDE.

Stephen had a death bed vision when he was beaten to death, and Paul had a near death experience when he was beaten on the road to Syria. That light he saw and voice he heard were not all that unusual.

Art

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Author: SeattlePioneer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13225 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 8:04 PM
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<<Also, despite the ability of some to rewrite history, Jimmy Carter started alternative energy initiatives which would have helped prevent the energy fix that we now find ourselves in. Reagan gutted them and Clinton and the 2 Bushes stuck with Reagan's "you can have your oil and consume it too" policies:
>>


Carter's energy plan included a heavy emphasis on building coal and especially nuclear power plants and would have restricted natural gas fired electric power plants.

Environmentalists gutted those energy initiatives which would have helped prevent the energy fix we are in today. They STILL oppose those energy policies of JC.



Seattle Pioneer

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Author: salaryguru Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13228 of 56829
Subject: Re: New Research From Bengen Date: 7/15/2008 11:20 PM
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I remember Carter's Proposed Energy Policy. He first talked about it in a speech to the nation in 1977.

Jimmy Carter, "The President's Proposed Energy Policy." 18 April 1977. Vital Speeches of the Day, Vol. XXXXIII, No. 14, May 1, 1977, pp. 418-420.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/filmmore/ps_energy.html

Carter focused most of his energy policy on conservation but also did propose expanded use of coal and renewable energy sources, like solar power. Early in the speech he mentions two previous energy transitions – wood to coal, and coal to petroleum – before describing a third transition:
. . . Because we are now running out of gas and oil, we must prepare quickly for a third change, to strict conservation and to the use of coal and permanent renewable energy sources, like solar power.

But Carter also mentioned the importance of the environment in his third principle that was the basis for his policy, “The third principle is that we must protect the environment.” And mentions it again in his ninth principle, “shift to plentiful coal while taking care to protect the environment”. In the mid-70’s, there was emerging research on scrubbers and coal gasification that Carter hoped to advance. Like the fleet fuel economy targets he established, these technologies probably could have been successfully developed if funding had continued.

Only twice did he even mention nuclear power:

1- He cautions us about what will happen if we do not take energy conservation seriously: “We will feel mounting pressure to plunder the environment. We will have a crash program to build more nuclear plants, strip-mine and burn more coal, and drill more offshore wells than we will need if we begin to conserve now. Inflation will soar, production will go down, people will lose their jobs. Intense competition will build up among nations and among the different regions within our own country.

2- He lays out 10 principles his energy policy will be based on. Principle 9 mentions stricter standards on nuclear: “The ninth principle is that we must conserve the fuels that are scarcest and make the most of those that are more plentiful. We can't continue to use oil and gas for 75 percent of our consumption when they make up seven percent of our domestic reserves. We need to shift to plentiful coal while taking care to protect the environment, and to apply stricter safety standards to nuclear energy.

Carter's speech and his energy policy still make a lot of sense today. Fortunately, it was not completely dismantled or we would be in even worse shape today than we already are. The limited amounts of wind and solar technology we use today benefited from the research done at that time. Higher standards for housing insulation and energy efficient appliances trace their origins back to that time.

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