With today's release of the CPI-U, we now know what the inflation component is going to be for the next 6-month I Bond inflation adjustment. There was a pretty hefty jump, which when doubled (for annualizing) means the inflation component is higher than I had been expecting.

Assuming my calculations are correct, it will be 2.38%. Unfortunately, IMO, it's still pretty doubtful that the fixed portion of the I Bond will increase, so that means new I Bonds bought beginning in May should yield around 3.5% (annualized, for their first 6 months).

I still believe the new EE rate will come in a bit below 3% ... but I've been wrong before.

Ken