nice discussion here gents. i have decided to not go back in for second dibs on MBIA. in hindsight i cut the trade too early and given where i entered i surely had more room to play with but such is life in the fast lane. my personal limit on one position is 9%-10% of AUM. i read here Charlie has been potentially dabbling and scouting in other mediums, i.e. currencies, etc. but i noticed in his most recent post looks like he is going to stick with the bonds gig. quite awhile ago now, i had developed a system or edge with respect to currencies and commodities that was comprised of implimenting spreads which consisted of a cocktail of long/short future and/or options contracts along with in some instance underlying equity or etf type positions. but those days are long gone. even back in the day, they were too time intenstive & many times too complicated to leg in and out of. slippage can really hurt your ROR.now there appears to be no more real time arbs to be had as those pesky "machines" would immediately find them. the only risk free real time money to be had present day is if you want to get into the business of EFPs, but the annualized rate of return will currently reflect something closer to interest rates. but still > money markets.so to make any kind of quantifiable money, you basically need to take directional bet of some sort, where you are hedged or not is personal choice. or take a non-directional bets by sellling some kind of a premium spread formulae crunching delta or theta and/or vega, but of course nothing is without risk or predictability. think i will stick with corps.
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