UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: Hohum777 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1823  
Subject: NM musing Date: 11/20/2010 4:28 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
In the SBLK Q&A session, someone asked an asset valuation question, and SBLK mgmt
ran the numbers with "lower vessel value" than reported on the Balance Sheet, charters, newbuilds, etc.

That would be a good exercise for NM, but a lot more complicated. Owned Fleet: 14 UltraHandys, 4 Panamaxes, 7 Capes,
5 Cape newbuilds
(14 * $24M) + (4 * $30M) + (12 * 65M) = $1236M

NM stake in NMM has some daily fluctuation, but say $250M
NM stake in NNA has some daily fluctuation, but say $125M
Navios Logistics say $236M (75% of fixed assets)

I don't know the proper way to capitalize the LT charters, but using only the Cape charters over the
next 5 years, EBITDA I get
($85K * 355 * 3.5) + ($30K + $27K) * (355 * 5) + ($37K * 355 * 4) + ($27.5K * 355 * 5) + ($21K * 4 * 355 * 5)
+ ($16K * 355 * 5) + ($19K * 355 * 5)
= $519.4M * .65 ( <= Total WAG) = $337.61M

A few months back I dug up the Kleimar details

I already included a Kleimar Panamax above, so that leaves 2 Cape purchase options + COA revenue.
Value = ???
Another WAG - $65M

The charter-in newbuild vessels with purchase options, Value = ???
Another WAG - $150M

Cash $370M

Debt = $1.7B (NM says $1.5B, but Ship Mortgage Notes was a $700M separate line item on the Balance Sheet)

Net: $1069.6M
Probably some adjustment needed on the NM shares (convertible), but even with a 10%, I get $9.72/sh.
A more reasonable 5%, I get $10.18/sh
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next


Foolanthropy 2014!
By working with young, first-time moms, Nurse-Family Partnership is able to truly change lives – for generations to come.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Dividend Growth Investing

Good Time for Dividend Champions?
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.