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Author: Hohum777 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1656  
Subject: NM musing Date: 11/20/2010 4:28 PM
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In the SBLK Q&A session, someone asked an asset valuation question, and SBLK mgmt
ran the numbers with "lower vessel value" than reported on the Balance Sheet, charters, newbuilds, etc.


That would be a good exercise for NM, but a lot more complicated. Owned Fleet: 14 UltraHandys, 4 Panamaxes, 7 Capes,
5 Cape newbuilds
(14 * $24M) + (4 * $30M) + (12 * 65M) = $1236M

NM stake in NMM has some daily fluctuation, but say $250M
NM stake in NNA has some daily fluctuation, but say $125M
Navios Logistics say $236M (75% of fixed assets)


I don't know the proper way to capitalize the LT charters, but using only the Cape charters over the
next 5 years, EBITDA I get
($85K * 355 * 3.5) + ($30K + $27K) * (355 * 5) + ($37K * 355 * 4) + ($27.5K * 355 * 5) + ($21K * 4 * 355 * 5)
+ ($16K * 355 * 5) + ($19K * 355 * 5)
= $519.4M * .65 ( <= Total WAG) = $337.61M

A few months back I dug up the Kleimar details
http://boards.fool.com/sep-2010-musing-nm-28756371.aspx

I already included a Kleimar Panamax above, so that leaves 2 Cape purchase options + COA revenue.
Value = ???
Another WAG - $65M

The charter-in newbuild vessels with purchase options, Value = ???
Another WAG - $150M

Cash $370M

Debt = $1.7B (NM says $1.5B, but Ship Mortgage Notes was a $700M separate line item on the Balance Sheet)

Net: $1069.6M
Probably some adjustment needed on the NM shares (convertible), but even with a 10%, I get $9.72/sh.
A more reasonable 5%, I get $10.18/sh
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