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Author: synchronicityII Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76421  
Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date: 9/18/2013 12:19 PM
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No, it's not, but at one point in this thread--I'm not going to take the time to go back and find it--Ray claimed that a modest investment in the S&P500 turned into $6-9 million!

You should go back and read the thread, or realize how compounding interest works. It amazes me that as a mortgage broker you're showing a limited understanding of the concept. It's "math". You and Ray were talking about $1,000/month contributed to an account over 48 years (followed by a 20 year drawdown, FWIW). Using a simple excel formula or any scientific calculator, you would learn that a steady investment of $1,000 per month for 48 years will have an end value of $9 million at a 9.2% CAGR, and a value of $6 million at an 8% CAGR.

When I protested that one didn't need a calculator to know this couldn't possibly be accurate, I was hounded firmly into place by the pro-Index investors in this thread. Why, I must be stoopid not to believe that $6-9 million is possible because Ray said so!

No, you were "hounded" because multiple people rolled out multiple examples, using online calculators and simple formulas (as I just did above), to show that Ray's results were, in fact, right in the ballpark of what one would expect.

When faced with this reality, you tried to change the terms of the argument, move the goalposts, handwave the results away, and insult the people presenting you with very straightforward math. At least this time you did supply results from a qualified person...and no surprise, their results are very similar to Ray's! Because the math is the math is the math.

As an aside, I can assure you that most if not all of the people responding to you also have a thorough understanding of volatility and the risks inherent in investing.

[BTW, when I said I didn't know how to (a) create such a spreadsheet and (b) post it to the board, why, you'd have thought I admitted to mass murder. It's really disheartening that respectful discussion of this very important topic is impossible here. One must wade through a sea of snark to get to a reasonable conclusion.]

My irony meter just exploded. REALLY!!?!?! You, of all people, complaining about "snark"? REALLY?!?!? And methinks your misrepresenting people's frustration with you just a bit.

This isn't a matter of politics. If you haven't figured it out yet, Ray's political views are probably not much different from your own. It's about facts, data and math. Everytime you make comments like yours above that "Ray's claim that X can grow to a much larger Y is OBVIOUSLY wrong", you are ruining whatever credibility you hope to have here.

-synchronicity
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