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Author: albaby1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 122  
Subject: Re: Greetings, Fool! Date: 9/16/2006 5:34 PM
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No question that sheer luck will influence results, and it's something to bear in mind when looking at CAPS overall, and especially so if one is planning to use CAPS to identify a 'lead steer' to follow. That said, by basing one of the critical measures of success on a probability distribution, with the top spots held only by those who can prove, statistically, that their results were not the result of pure luck, the current player rating goes a long way toward addressing your concern.

True, but bear in mind that sort of analysis depends on the number of players, not just the stats for each individual player. If you have several thousand players, there are certainly going to be a few that pick better than 2 times out of 3 over 100 picks by random chance (or whatever the stats are - I don't know that outperforming the market is a 50/50 proposition for any random stock).

Hey, I don't want to be too negative - it will be an interesting experiment. I just remember the stock-picker contests that all the financial sites used to run during the "boom" years of the late 1990's. In each contest, the winners would have ungodly returns - not because these folks had the innate ability to pick stocks with annual returns exceeding 540%, but because with so many entrants picking small numbers of stocks, someone was going to have an extraordinary return if only by chance.

Albaby

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