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Author: ChurchyLaFemme Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 202160  
Subject: Not too shabby Date: 1/24/2013 10:21 PM
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I just ran a CAGR calculator based on my cost basis and time of purchase and the assumption that AAPL will take 20 years to double to $901 from its current price. I bought in February, 1999 (close enough to today) and the holding period in 2033 would be 34 years.

Based on those calculations, share price appreciation grows at a CAGR of 14.29% over 34 years. This is exclusive of dividends. If I assume the dividend remains the same $10.60/year for the next 20 years, the CAGR is boosted to 15% with no dividend reinvestment.

In order to double between now and 2033, AAPL's share price need only grow at a rate of 3.53%/year. The CAGR up to now since buying AAPL (again ignoring dividend payouts since there have only been 2 so far) is 31.64%.

Kahunacfa is way ahead of me. His CAGR since purchase is 38.15%. Running the same scenario out to 2033 lowers his CAGR to 17.69% exclusive of dividends.

A more optimistic assumption is that AAPL doubles in 6 years. That's a CAGR of 12.25% from today and a total holding period (for me) of 20 years. If that happens, the CAGR since initial purchase comes out to 25.49% exclusive of dividends.

AAPL's pretty close in price where it was a year ago. If you add the $5.30 in dividends paid out so far to the share price of 1 year ago, it's almost dead even. Even with essentially no growth for the last 12 months, I can't complain.

Churchy
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