Nate Silver (538):

Obama chance of winning: 86.1%
Romney chance of winning: 13.9%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Intrade:

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 67.9%
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=74347...


I will be reporting only even number milestones from here on out. I don't want to bore everyone with Obama's inexorable climb towards total victory.

Peter



538 History:

65.0% chance on July 25, 2012
69.1% chance on July 27, 2012
70.2% chance on August 2, 2012
71.1% chance on August 4, 2012
72.4% chance on August 5, 2012
73.3% chance on August 10, 2012
76.3% chance on September 5, 2012
77.3% chance on September 7, 2012
78.1% chance on September 7, 2012
79.8% chance on September 8, 2012
81.9% chance on September 26, 2012
83.9% chance on September 28, 2012


Intrade History:

58.1% chance on August 4, 2012
57.7% chance on August 5, 2012
58.9% chance on August 10, 2012
58.5% chance on September 5, 2012
58.2% chance on September 7, 2012
57.3% chance on September 7, 2012
57.3% chance on September 8, 2012
74.5% chance on September 26, 2012
78.6% chance on September 28, 2012

I will be reporting only even number milestones from here on out. I don't want to bore everyone with Obama's inexorable climb towards total victory.

Here I was hoping that you would be reporting the intrade percentage more often.

SP1 Here I was hoping that you would be reporting the intrade percentage more often.

I measure the mile stones by Nate Silver's probability, but I always report both numbers at the same time.

Peter

Obama has 86% chance of winning

.....ROTFLMAO. Obama couldn't even get 86% even if ALL of the Republicans in the United States died before election day. - Carol

Carol, re-read what you just wrote:

Obama has 86% chance of winning

.....ROTFLMAO. Obama couldn't even get 86% even if ALL of the Republicans in the United States died before election day. - Carol


The pollsters are describing President Obama's odds of winning, not what percent of the vote he will take.

Obama has 86% chance of winning

.....ROTFLMAO. Obama couldn't even get 86% even if ALL of the Republicans in the United States died before election day. - Carol


The pollsters are describing President Obama's odds of winning, not what percent of the vote he will take.




Republicans aren't very good at math.

Can't fix stupid

Obama chance of winning: 86.1%
Romney chance of winning: 13.9%

Last night when I changed the channel rather early in the debate I had the feeling, for the first time, that Romney actually could win. That's terrifying.

Obama seemed unsure whether he really, really wants to be president for another 4 years.