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Author: PeterRabit Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1932841  
Subject: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 12:19 AM
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Nate Silver (538):

Obama chance of winning: 86.1%
Romney chance of winning: 13.9%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Intrade:

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 67.9%
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=74347...


I will be reporting only even number milestones from here on out. I don't want to bore everyone with Obama's inexorable climb towards total victory.

Peter



538 History:

65.0% chance on July 25, 2012
69.1% chance on July 27, 2012
70.2% chance on August 2, 2012
71.1% chance on August 4, 2012
72.4% chance on August 5, 2012
73.3% chance on August 10, 2012
76.3% chance on September 5, 2012
77.3% chance on September 7, 2012
78.1% chance on September 7, 2012
79.8% chance on September 8, 2012
81.9% chance on September 26, 2012
83.9% chance on September 28, 2012


Intrade History:

58.1% chance on August 4, 2012
57.7% chance on August 5, 2012
58.9% chance on August 10, 2012
58.5% chance on September 5, 2012
58.2% chance on September 7, 2012
57.3% chance on September 7, 2012
57.3% chance on September 8, 2012
74.5% chance on September 26, 2012
78.6% chance on September 28, 2012
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Author: SaintPatrick1 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820853 of 1932841
Subject: Re: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 12:23 AM
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I will be reporting only even number milestones from here on out. I don't want to bore everyone with Obama's inexorable climb towards total victory.

Here I was hoping that you would be reporting the intrade percentage more often.

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Author: PeterRabit Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820855 of 1932841
Subject: Re: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 12:25 AM
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SP1 Here I was hoping that you would be reporting the intrade percentage more often.

I measure the mile stones by Nate Silver's probability, but I always report both numbers at the same time.

Peter

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Author: yosemitebean Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820868 of 1932841
Subject: Re: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 12:57 AM
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Obama has 86% chance of winning

.....ROTFLMAO. Obama couldn't even get 86% even if ALL of the Republicans in the United States died before election day. - Carol

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Author: FreethinkerKW Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820886 of 1932841
Subject: Re: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 2:50 AM
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Carol, re-read what you just wrote:

Obama has 86% chance of winning

.....ROTFLMAO. Obama couldn't even get 86% even if ALL of the Republicans in the United States died before election day. - Carol



The pollsters are describing President Obama's odds of winning, not what percent of the vote he will take.

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Author: feedmeNOWhuman Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820887 of 1932841
Subject: Re: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 2:51 AM
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Obama has 86% chance of winning

.....ROTFLMAO. Obama couldn't even get 86% even if ALL of the Republicans in the United States died before election day. - Carol


The pollsters are describing President Obama's odds of winning, not what percent of the vote he will take.





Republicans aren't very good at math.

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Author: bufftrainer Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820900 of 1932841
Subject: Re: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 7:01 AM
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Can't fix stupid

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Author: FoolishWaldo Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1820988 of 1932841
Subject: Re: Obama has 86% chance of winning Date: 10/4/2012 10:06 AM
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Obama chance of winning: 86.1%
Romney chance of winning: 13.9%


Last night when I changed the channel rather early in the debate I had the feeling, for the first time, that Romney actually could win. That's terrifying.

Obama seemed unsure whether he really, really wants to be president for another 4 years.

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