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I'm not one to put much in the worth of pontification, but McKinsey a fairly smart group of folks if you missed the memo. They invoke an interesting historical perspective, and reference trends in developed markets on spending. That, in confluence with the current state of credit markets, makes a compelling argument for the Austrian (read: austerity) school of economics.

Leveraged and no-moat firms, the implications are equally profound--as they'll have less access to capital, and each incremental dollar of investment comes at a higher hurdle rate. In two words: they're screwed, if McKinsey's prognostications play out. And the ydon't seem too far-fetched to me.

https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Corporate_Finance/Capital_...

(Note: Requires registration. But it's free, and worth it.)

-Mike
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