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Once saw a great list of "how you know when a market top is near." It included such things as

1. Talk of 'new paradigms' in whatever item is being traded
2. Outlandish price forecasts in the popular press (ex DOW 36000 book in 1999)
3. Buy recommendation from your barber, dentist or newspaper boy. I guess also the person who does your nails.
4. And yes, those 'can't miss' investment opportunities on TV commercials

I think the concept is that everybody is most bullish at the top (everybody is already long so nobody left to buy)

ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We....are....NOT....anywhere close to that point in gold......YET, but if I am right we will get there and the gold price when we get there might be something most don't even consider fathomable. Who would have thought NASDAQ 5000 in 1996 or crude oil 150 in 2002?

Richard Russell yesterday:

Question -- Wait Russell, why do you think there will be a third speculative phase for gold? Many experts, even gold experts, are saying that "gold is overpriced now."

Answer -- First, I've never seen a big bull market that has not ended with an emotional, wild third phase. Just as gold got ridiculously undervalued (below 300) in 1999, it will become overvalued in the years ahead. Human nature tends to go to extremes. And there's "no fever like gold fever."


Russell Comment -- The public is hardly bullish about gold. If they were, they'd be buying gold now instead of selling it a the "new, fat price" of over $1,000 an ounce.

I attended a party yesterday, and at a gathering of seven people at my table I was asked, "Russell, what should we buy now?" I answered, "Gold coins." Every face looked blank. It was as if I had told them to buy a hippo. Nobody at the table owned an ounce of gold.

Some day soon I think there will be a stampede IN followed by a stampede out. I've now watched 4 bubbles inflate and crash, tech, housing, China, crude oil. I think I've got a feel for the sentiment. God willing, I plan to make a bundle long on the way up, and shorting on the way down.
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