One big driver for people to invest in Nokia is the current price tag of $2 and change. That compared with the price it fell from recently is a very big driver for most to invest. I do not think that is the right way to think about this and invest in this company.

The difference between Apple and Nokia is that Apple is self sufficient and self sustaining since they have built an ecosystem which is almost like a closed loop. Soup to nuts experience. If you have read Steve Jobs biography, there is one thing that Steve says in the book. When Apple was not as big as they currently are, they went to Adobe and requested them to make software for the MAC, but Adobe refused. At that point, Steve learnt that if you are dependent on anybody else, you could get your head handed to you. So he went ahead and created something that will never make him dependent on someone else. Case in point is the failure of Flash.

Nokia is very dependent on Microsoft for their smartphones. If Mr. Softy changes its plans, which like Zune, could be pretty possible, Nokia would be in a very bad spot. Investing in a company, that is totally dependent on someone else is slightly risky.

The bottom line is, Nokia failed to see the smartphone boom and sure enough, the market killed it. That is the risk of investing in tech companies, who fail to see the next big thing. Apple has a similar risk. After Steve Jobs, there is no innovator, but he has built a machine that will keep turning, so the current management has not much to fear. It is the success or failure of new products that will define where Apple will go from here. Even if all new products fail, Apple is still pretty cheap.

Good luck investing in Nokia. Maybe one day Nokia will shine too.

Vish