One might reasonably argue that increasing dividends is also a slight
predictor of management confidence (though they may be bluffing).
Management confidence may correlate with slightly rosier future, and
since management knows the firm better than anyone, there is a weak
case to be made that rising dividends may correlate with slightly
higher intrinsic value. But it is more like getting a memo that
says things are getting better.

Actually, constantly rising dividends have proved to be one of the few ways to outperform the market over time. This has been shown/proven by both academics and fund managers [who buy only said stocks].

The case is far from weak. It is strong, very.

Of course, this holds only for a portfolio, not any single name as we all know - I totally agree with you there.