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Author: 1poorguy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 737213  
Subject: Re: What would make me happy Date: 10/18/2012 4:27 PM
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One poll or survey is relatively meaningless. There are several electoral maps being published these days that use various sources (including an aggregation of the polls, I believe). Here is intrade's.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/

As I said, intrade is non-partisan. They just let you bet (in essence) on the outcome.

I've seen a few maps, and they all look like this one. The electoral college distorts elections somewhat, so it's really better to look at how the electoral votes appear to be lining up instead of focusing on a few polls of individual voters.

Certainly something weird could happen to change things. But the odds are pretty long at this point. Which is also reflected in the intrade market (i.e. the cost of placing a bet): http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/
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