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Author: captainccs Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 72298  
Subject: Opinion: Venezuelan election Date: 10/4/2012 1:23 PM
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Pundits are hedging their bets. I wonder what it means.

Win or lose, Capriles may win in Venezuela

BY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER
AOPPENHEIMER@MIAMIHERALD.COM

Anything is possible in Venezuela’s elections Sunday, but there is a good chance that opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski will do better than any of his predecessors in the polls, and that — win or lose — he will put President Hugo Chavez’s 14-year-old regime against the ropes.

There is a plausible scenario that even if Capriles loses by a narrow margin, a good showing in Sunday’s election will allow him to keep the opposition unified, and to become a viable alternative to a president who may have terminal cancer, and who has no successor who could beat Capriles.


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/03/3033066/win-or-lose-ca...

Denny Schlesinger
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Author: ukgold Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63991 of 72298
Subject: Re: Opinion: Venezuelan election Date: 10/5/2012 3:02 PM
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Betting on the election in the UK is a non starter.. no firm is making market on the outcome!!!!
what does that mean... I don't know...is the election to close to call?? or do they think the election is rigged so as Chavez will win on any outcome??

Denny your thoughts...
Alan

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Author: captainccs Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 63993 of 72298
Subject: Re: Opinion: Venezuelan election Date: 10/5/2012 6:17 PM
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I'm not good at predicting results of elections. Yes the election is rigged but it won't matter if the difference in favor of the opposition is large enough. No poll gives Capriles a big lead although the last serious one did give him the lead. The bond market is pricing in a Capriles win as is the Caracas stock market. Several pundits have come out saying that Capriles will win but they seem to all use the last poll I just mentioned as their data source which makes them irrelevant, not additive. As I showed in an earlier post, the opposition beat Chavez 50-48 in the 2010 National Assembly vote.

Frankly, I would not bet on the outcome, I mean the real world outcome because we don't know how the government will cheat. A straight, free vote should topple Chavez.

Remember, there is a lot of money riding on the outcome, who owns the world's largest oil reserves! People kill for much less.

Also, if at 20 you are not a communist, you have no heart. If at 40 you are a communist, you have no brains. Venezuelans are young! The difference in campaign rhetoric matches the above dictum. Capriles is presenting a serious platform. Chavez is playing on sentiment.

Denny Schlesinger

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