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No. of Recommendations: 31
In July 2009 I suggested a slate of stocks for a ten-year no-changes dividend portfolio.

I just thought I'd check back and see how it has done, 3.79 years later.

In total return it has almost exactly matched SPY at 18.59%/year compounded versus 18.45%/year compounded.
Excellent, but not outperformance.
But it has met its dividend goals.
The original portfolio was worth $200k getting $8k/year (4.00%) in dividends.
It's now a portfolio of $379077 getting $11918/year in dividends.
That new figure is a yield of 3.14% on current prices, or 6.0% on the original prices.
The dividends have been rising at 12.3%/year compounded.

It would not be hard to think that, in the context of a strong rise in dividends
the fact that the prices have risen even faster (which is why the current
yield has fallen) might indicate current price levels are ahead of themselves.
This portfolio isn't going to make 18.5%/year forever. Nothing does.
My original forecast was an expected 10%/year total return for a decade.
For that to be the case, given the strength of the first 3.79 years
the next 6.21 years would be a return of 5.18%/year including dividends.

Only two picks are down in raw price terms at the moment: Posco and Santander.
Only two dividends are down, Santander (just a bit: solely because of FX movements) and Eaton.
As expected, the increases of GE and WFC dividends were substantial: 90% and 400%.
Moral of the story: buy what the dividend will be, not what it is.

I mused in that old post that it might not be so long before Amex once
again was making over $3 a share. It's now at about a $4.74/year rate.

Incidentally, two companies had spinoffs: COP became COP+PSX/2 and KFT became MDLZ+KRFT/2.
I simply assumed that one held the original as well as the spun-off shares.
As mentioned at the time, when BNI was acquired I simply assumed the
money was reallocated proportionally to the other firms.

All in all, I'm happy with how it has done so far.
It's what I thought was a very safe slate of firms, and I still think that.
Given the conservatism, the fact that it has kept up with SPY in total return is pretty good.
Some outperformance might be anticipated in the next bear market.

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