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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35400  
Subject: OT: Bomb Blasts in Athens Date: 5/4/2004 10:38 PM
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3684967.stm

Just taking a quick bed time look at the news sources. Not a lot of detail. Off topic, maybe, but these things have big impact on markets, except when they don't. Might give some pause to those of you who are now so sure rates are going up, sure enought to short sell bonds. Whatever happened to certainty about deflation?

Me, I'm certain enough that something will either happen or not not that I like a lot of cash.
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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 10081 of 35400
Subject: Re: OT: Bomb Blasts in Athens Date: 5/5/2004 8:32 AM
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And, in the light of day, it looks like this is being treated as a yawner. Shouldn't be, in my view—a warning shot, but if terrorists frighten US into withdrawing from Olympics (as some have suggested should be done for reasons of safety), actually succeed in some act during the Olympics, or just frighten away tourists, the direct economic impact, and the psycho-impact (which is where we would see a flight into bonds) would be considerable.

Given the state of the world, where these kind of things can happen, anyone aggresively pursuing the assumption that bond prices will go up is taking big risks. People flee to bonds when they get scared. I'm scared (even though I'm buying CDs, not bonds).

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Author: benhancockjr Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 10082 of 35400
Subject: Re: OT: Bomb Blasts in Athens Date: 5/5/2004 10:52 AM
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Me, I'm certain enough that something will either happen or not not that I like a lot of cash.

I tend to agree with you. Regardless of what happens, having lots of cash is good thing.

A question for you and others: What do you think about international CDs that offer higher yields. They do carry currency risk (or benefit depending on what you think of the $). At any rate, I've never invested in international CDs, so I'm just curious what others think.

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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 10084 of 35400
Subject: Re: OT: Bomb Blasts in Athens Date: 5/5/2004 12:20 PM
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"Me, I'm certain enough that something will either happen or not not that I like a lot of cash.

I tend to agree with you. Regardless of what happens, having lots of cash is good thing.

A question for you and others: What do you think about international CDs that offer higher yields. They do carry currency risk (or benefit depending on what you think of the $). At any rate, I've never invested in international CDs, so I'm just curious what others think."

Ben,

For me, laddering with CDs (or something similar) in a time of considerable uncertainty (i.e., both serious inflation and serious economic downturn are reasonable expectations) is the least dangerous hedge. Once you start playing currencies, you increase risk, and I'm not sure the return is worth it.

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Author: TwoCybers Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 10085 of 35400
Subject: Re: OT: Bomb Blasts in Athens Date: 5/5/2004 12:30 PM
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I certainly do not want to see any repetition of the World Trade Attacks (either 1993 or 2001) or the recent Madrid train bombing. However, I think two points are worth considering. #1 Are the Greek government and people willing/capable of really dealing with terrorist? i.e would they shoot down a plane flying in closed air space? #2 When more of these events happen (and they will), their effect of the markets will tend toward the effect of Israeli bus bombings and the IRA bombings which appear to have stopped -- i.e. no effect.

Another outcome from the spectacular events will be isolation of the terrorists. Saudi Arabia was a lot less interested in the problem until a couple of incidents hit close to home. I suspect if the Eiffel Tower destroyed some governments in Continental Europe would have somewhat different view.

Gordon
Atlanta


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