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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35362  
Subject: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:01 AM
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html#article_continue

This is scary. I don't know how valid, but the claim is world oil production peaked last year. Last time I heard, predictions were for a peak in the 2015-2020 range (at least predictions from people who don't practice optimism as a religion). Demand is clearly expected to keep rising, but if production kept just a bit behind pace, we would simply see oil prices going up well faster than inflation. If oil production has actually peaked, we're looking at disaster in 15-20 years not 30-40.
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Author: theHedgehog Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21861 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:36 AM
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If oil production has actually peaked, we're looking at disaster in 15-20 years not 30-40.

Here's an article quoting T. Boone Pickens that he believes that oil has already peaked. If he says it, I tend to believe it.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/01/africa/ME-FIN-Pickens-Oil-Peak.php

Here's an article with as many links as you can stand for info on Peak oil and the Olduvai Theory.

http://www.dieoff.org/

I found a report recently by the electric power industry that shows that the power grid runs out of surplus somewhere around 2015, but I'd have to go on a wumpus hunt to find it again.

In a nutshell, the Peak Oil people say that civilization dies forever somewhere between 2015 and 2030; after only 100 years of industrial civilization. They further say that it's not going to be pretty.

I've been reading a bit on the subject this year, and the only ray of hope that I see is the proposed Toshiba micro-nuke project with Galena, AK. If the environmentalists don't kill it, it may pave the way for a new age of safe and affordable nuclear power. If they kill it, it's hard to believe that enough "alternative energy" can be made available in time to keep the lights on. 2015 isn't that far away, and the wars in the Middle-East are just getting ready to start in earnest. If distribution fails, we're not going to make it to 2015.

Hedge

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21863 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:02 AM
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Several analysts regularly discuss Peak Oil. Since the conventional wisdom is that there is ample oil for the foreseeable future, the Peak Oil proponents fall into the contrarian camp. The doomsday oil scenario harmonizes with several other doomsday scenarios, which you can find at http://www.dailyreckoning.com/.

I find it hard to judge whom to believe, vis-a-vis timing and the rate of inflation in hydrocarbon pricing. My practical approach is to invest in VGENX, the Vanguard Energy Fund.

Wendy

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Author: theHedgehog Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21864 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:28 AM
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Since the conventional wisdom is that there is ample oil for the foreseeable future, the Peak Oil proponents fall into the contrarian camp.

We have a problem in that most of the oil comes from the Middle-East, and the ME is about to blow up. Do we simply go in and take it in order to prevent Western Civilization from collapsing? You bet your sweet bippy, we do; and people will rationalise it as best they can when they understand what's at stake.

The other side of the problem is the numbers. If we've reached the peak of oil production, then it's also true that we're nowhere near a peak in demand growth (not just a peak in demand). Unfortunately, increase in demand is not linear, it's exponential. With a static supply, we cannot have growth; any growth. It's no surprise that China is developing strong ties with Iran, given this reality. Demand can grow as much as it likes, but the supply will be steady and then start to shrink. Who's going to tell China and ROW that the US is first in line for all the oil that's left? Do we ration it by population or by land area? Doesn't the ME have a say? Probably not.

So, Western Civilization is on the verge of collapse, and the average guy doesn't even have a clue exactly how bad it is. He thinks it's something his grand-kids will have to face. He's still shaming Bush for his Oil War in Iraq.

The big question is how do we go about shutting down industrial civilization in an orderly fashion? For the past decade or so, we've been living in Goldilocks' world, where everything works just right, just in time. I doubt the collapse will be orderly, but I have no way to know just when the collapse will actually happen. In the meantime, as a matter of national security we have no choice but to continue down the path of population growth and economic growth. The first one to run out of oil loses, and loses big. Whatever the case, Peak Oil means the collapse has already begun.

Hedge

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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21865 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 10:18 AM
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Since the conventional wisdom is that there is ample oil for the foreseeable future, the Peak Oil proponents fall into the contrarian camp.

I have no idea whose "conventional wisdowm" this is. "What, me worry?" is certainly a pervasive attitude in this country (more so than in Europe), but conventional wisdom of anyone actually looking at oil stocks and production capabilities has been that we will run out of oil and, eventually, oil equivalents (such as oil shale) that require considerably more effort for extraction than digging a hole in the ground (or even more complex hole digging). The contrarians are the ones who say there's plenty of oil out there, if the profits are big enough.

I would like to think the American public is ready to listen to a politician who says, at least, we have a problem and we need to fix it and that means taking conservation seriously (the average consumer or business can cut energy consumption by something like 10% by just stopping being lazy or stupid and 20% by spending money on greater efficiency). It also means investing public money to create alternatives, and by public money I mean raising taxes and not waiting for market forces to invest in a massive energy transformation. But there are no actual leaders who run for political office, except a few who quickly get demonized. Optimisim has become a national political disease (the public is far less optimistic than covetional political widwom thinks). I would vote for anyone who says: here is a list of real scary problems this country is facing in the not too distant future and I want to find ways that solve those problems in the real world and I'm telling you any of my opponents who tell you you can have your cake and eat it too are lying.

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Author: theHedgehog Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21866 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:33 PM
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Loki,

From my viewpoint, your post, as dismal as you've tried to make it, is simply too optimistic. The problem is far worse than merely looking for an alternative energy source. There are no sources, other than nuclear, that will do anything of any substance. We have to completely revamp our way of life. The Olduvai Theory people say that the 1930s should be our model, because that's where we're going; like it or not.

Hedge

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21867 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:35 PM
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<Who's going to tell China and ROW that the US is first in line for all the oil that's left?>

Certainly Russia (one of the world's largest oil and gas producers) won't tell the world that the US is first in line for all the oil that's left.

Putin announced yesterday that it's unhealthy for the world to have only one superpower. Russia is rearming.

If you remember the Cold War (I suspect you do), this won't give you a warm, cuddly feeling.

Wendy

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Author: theHedgehog Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21868 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:47 PM
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If you remember the Cold War (I suspect you do), this won't give you a warm, cuddly feeling.

Actually, there was a lot to be said for the Cold War. Perhaps you remember the Netanyahu interview where he pointed out that war with a country is a deterrable war, whereas war with a terrorist ideology is not deterrable.

Hedge

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21869 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:48 PM
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Good thing this thread is labeled OT, because I'll have to get political here.

<I would like to think the American public is ready to listen to a politician who says, at least, we have a problem and we need to fix it and that means taking conservation seriously>

I disagree with this statement...pending the next election. Seven years of GWB promising alternative energy, but NOT giving serious incentives for conservation, with a win in 2004, tells me that the winning political professionals judge that the American public is NOT ready to vote for a serious conservation president.

<I would vote for anyone who says: here is a list of real scary problems this country is facing in the not too distant future and I want to find ways that solve those problems in the real world and I'm telling you any of my opponents who tell you you can have your cake and eat it too are lying.>

Good thing you aren't running for president, Loki. You would get my vote, but precious few others.

Wendy

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21870 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:52 PM
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Hedge

Like you, I saw some article claiming that the power grid will become overloaded, but my memory is of 2012 (and very well could be faulty).

Actually parts of the power grid are overloaded already. TECO built a huge power plant called Gila Bend. California needed the power, but the grid wouldn't take it. It became a big stink for TECO. The CEO had to resign. The power plant was written off (including another huge one in LA, I think). TECO has been trying to dig out ever since. But its base in Tampa is still good.

brucedoe

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21871 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 12:56 PM
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Wendy

Our approach was to invest in the T. Rowe Price New Era fund which is 60% in energy with some mining and other things. It currently is up 33% this year, even after Friday's correction. What it will be by years end, I have no idea. But since we (i.e. the USA) refuse to do anything to minimize our oil imports (and increasingly LNG and even gasoline), I only see the long-term trend to be up, baring a world-side recession (which could happen, I think).

brucedoe

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21873 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:07 PM
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<war with a terrorist ideology is not deterrable.>

Stalinist communism was an ideology that was not deterrable, even though it wasn't terrorist (killing innocent bystanders in foreign countries, though plenty of its own innocent bystanders were killed).

My grandmother, who was a socialist, assured me that Russian communism was aberrant (not socialist). Even she eventually recognized how dangerous they were.

There are still Communist ideologues, and still Communist states (such as China) and rebel movements, which are still dangerous.

Communist ideology is as dangerous as religious ideology, since it has a coherent internal structure, and its adherents can justify that their good ends justify their evil means.

Wendy

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Author: theHedgehog Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21874 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:08 PM
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Like you, I saw some article claiming that the power grid will become overloaded, but my memory is of 2012 (and very well could be faulty).

Bruce,

You may be right on at 2012. There are so many numbers that center on 2012-2030 that I'm starting to get them all confused. I'll have to see if I can find that article, actually a pdf of a government report. If I can, I'll post a link.

Hedge

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Author: theHedgehog Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21875 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:14 PM
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There are still Communist ideologues, and still Communist states (such as China) and rebel movements, which are still dangerous.

I believe that you are wrong about China. China, under the current regime, has rejected Communism, closed the communes, and redistributed the land to local owners.

See the Thurow lecture: http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/220/ (Click Play Now - it's a long lecture but worth it)

Hedge

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21876 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:22 PM
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As one who was acquainted with King Hubbert, "peak oil" means that you have to drill increasingly more feet to get a barrel of oil. It doesn't necessarily mean that oil production will fall off, though that will have to happen eventually.

As for the U.S., our largest producer, the giant Prudhoe Bay (from structual traps), is declining in production rapidly and little is being done to replace it (It will now turn to production of natural gas which was left in the ground to help drive out the oil). There may be some production from large (but not giant) stratigraphic trap fields in the NPRA (National Petroeum Reserve in Alaska) to the West as well as some of these in Prudhoe Bay, but there is still no effort to explore for oil in ANWR (Alaskan Natural Wildlife Reserve) area to the East*. Together, if we are lucky, the two might replace Prudhoe Bay. To the best of my knowledge, the only other large deposit undergoing production (and very recently at that) is the Thunder Horse field (the name may have been changed) in very deep water (and very deep wells) in the Gulf of Mexico.

*Actually, there were two holes drilled in eastern Prudhoe Bay with oil showings that are in sight of ANWAR (Sourdough One and Two) which, to the best of my knowledge, which is dated, have not been pursued because of all the effort is in the West. If they should have commercial oil, however, considerable oil would come from under ANWR without drilling there.

brucedoe

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21877 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:29 PM
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Actually, Gore has been preaching the oil problem for years. Although the thing that attracts attention is the global Warming, he always mentions the problems with being so dependent on imported oil, and the need to transition out of it to something else. But as you say, as he is one who has been pointing our the severity of the problem from several standpoints, he is one that has been demonized*.

*Among other things, he never claimed he invented the internet. But he was politically responsible for letting the public have access to it, for which I, at least, am grateful.

brucedoe

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Author: theHedgehog Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21878 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 1:48 PM
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As one who was acquainted with King Hubbert, "peak oil" means that you have to drill increasingly more feet to get a barrel of oil. It doesn't necessarily mean that oil production will fall off, though that will have to happen eventually.

Peak production is peak production. If demand is larger than production, you have a problem, and the problem isn't simply that oil gets more expensive. At that point, the people who can't afford oil will finally understand that they'll never be able to afford oil. And most, on the margins, will understand that their days are numbered.

I think that we, as a world, will be able to weather it. I have my doubts about democracy, though. The problem with democracy is that people think they actually have a vote on the subject, any subject. Unfortunately, voting for more oil won't make it appear. I think that China probably has the right political structure to survive into the future, and I think we will have to move in that direction if we are to survive. It'll probably start as a declaration of Martial Law as a response to nationwide chaos in an extended power outage.

With any luck, I'll be completely wrong and life will go on as normal.

Hedge

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Author: snoot65 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21882 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 3:39 PM
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i never needed algore to tell me there is an oil problem..however i question technology's ability to know the amount of oil in the earth ...it may be crazy to think but what if the oil is being produced by the earth as we speak...if that was fact ,, how much would oil be worth tomorrow..until then ,, drill for more oil until there is an alternative...keep the gov out of finding the alternative..


tim

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Author: markr33 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21883 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 3:46 PM
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<<If you remember the Cold War (I suspect you do), this won't give you a warm, cuddly feeling.>>

Actually, there was a lot to be said for the Cold War. Perhaps you remember the Netanyahu interview where he pointed out that war with a country is a deterrable war, whereas war with a terrorist ideology is not deterrable.


Unless the second superpower is directly supporting those countries that directly or indirectly support the terrorist ideology.

brucedoe - Actually, Gore has been preaching the oil problem for years. Although the thing that attracts attention is the global Warming, he always mentions the problems with being so dependent on imported oil, and the need to transition out of it to something else. But as you say, as he is one who has been pointing our the severity of the problem from several standpoints, he is one that has been demonized*.

If you define free, unfettered, and almost gleeful access to the media, massive popularity, bestseller books and movies, and a Nobel prize to be demonized, then perhaps. Or maybe if you consider any form of an opposing viewpoint to be demonization.

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Author: Tredos1 One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21884 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 7:31 PM
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Our approach was to invest in the T. Rowe Price New Era fund which is 60% in energy with some mining and other things. It currently is up 33% this year, even after Friday's correction. What it will be by years end, I have no idea. But since we (i.e. the USA) refuse to do anything to minimize our oil imports (and increasingly LNG and even gasoline), I only see the long-term trend to be up, baring a world-side recession (which could happen, I think).

Anyone playing NLR for this scenario?

Tredos

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21887 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 9:19 PM
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Well, yes, oil is being produced by nature as we speak, but the questions are how much and is it extractable. Oil is not produced from the source rocks (usually black shale and, to a much lesser extent, limestone). Organic material is broken down and is turned into oil by heating in what is called the "thermal window." If I recall correctly this window is between something like 50 degrees C and 150 degrees C. The oil then migrates out of the source rocks (because of cracking of the rocks and squeezing), and moves until it is drastically slowed down by some "impervious" cap rock, often another shale, forming an oil reservoir in sandstone or limestone. Note I said slowed down because there is no perfect cap rock in nature. They too have some permeability, especially because of fracturing or cracking. In fact some oil fields have an expression at the Earth's surface of this leaking. It is used in prospecting for oil, in fact. So an oil reservoir means that oil moving in is faster than oil moving out.

The most volatile components of oil leak out of the reservoir the fastest. Therefore, the older the oil, the fewer the volatiles, and the less suitable the oil is for gasoline. When the easily volatilized components of oil are gone, the oil is called "heavy oil." Some oil has been found in rocks as old as 1.2 billion years, but it is very heavy. Incidentally, if you were to see a reservoir rock, it would look to you as just any solid rock.

One thing for sure, oil forming today is not economic, but there may be some small fields where oil has migrated to a cap rock rather recently.

brucedoe

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21888 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/22/2007 9:22 PM
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markr33

I refer to when he ran for president, of course, but, yes, he has done very well for himself, and probably for us, since.

brucedoe

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Author: adelmanmagic Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21890 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/23/2007 7:36 AM
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For an excellent presentation on oil/peak oil, watch the following presentation by Kenneth Deffeyes


http://gustavus.edu/events/nobelconference/2007/deffeyes-lecture.php

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Author: Lokicious Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21891 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/23/2007 9:52 AM
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From my viewpoint, your post, as dismal as you've tried to make it, is simply too optimistic. The problem is far worse than merely looking for an alternative energy source. There are no sources, other than nuclear, that will do anything of any substance. We have to completely revamp our way of life. The Olduvai Theory people say that the 1930s should be our model, because that's where we're going; like it or not.

Hedge,

I think doom and gloom to the point of inaction (everything is hopeless, so let's party as the ship sinks) is as useless as moronic market forces optimism (don't worry, as soon as someone can make a big enough profit there will be a solution). I don't know if the problems can be solved, but the starting point is accepting these are real problems, that there will no silver bullet solution that allows for having our cake and eating it too, that solutions will be multiple and nuanced (which doesn't make for good sound bites), and whatever is done will require massive expenditures that can only be done through government (which is not Socialism, unless you want to call the Manhattan Project or the space program or the interstate highway system, or the armed forces, Socialism).

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21892 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/23/2007 10:45 AM
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Loki

Actually the interstate highway system was viewed as Socialism in the beginning. Eisenhower had a tough time getting it past until he claimed national security (The difficulty experienced in WW II of transporting things in Europe.).

I suppose armed forces have come to be viewed as Socialism too which is why we have outsourced so much of the military to companies. For just one example, I'm not sure that having civilian cooks in Iraq is a bad idea, but they used to be military. I've heard estimates of 160,000 contractors in Iraq, something like 40,000 are mercenaries (i.e. security forces). I believe the embassies used to be guarded by Marines, now by mercenaries. Iraq is war as a corporate profit center.

Socialism isn't necessarily bad. Sweden, for example, has universal health care and a higher GDP than we have. Of course, for some reason, they have a very high suicide rate, too.

brucedoe

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Author: missash Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21893 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/23/2007 11:56 AM
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<<<<<<<<<<Socialism isn't necessarily bad. Sweden, for example, has universal health care and a higher GDP than we have. Of course, for some reason, they have a very high suicide rate, too.>>>>>> And a very high income tax rate, as well, IIRC.

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Author: kentm401 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21894 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/23/2007 2:08 PM
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Which might? account for the suicide rate......;o)

<<<<<<<<<<Socialism isn't necessarily bad. Sweden, for example, has universal health care and a higher GDP than we have. Of course, for some reason, they have a very high suicide rate, too.>>>>>> And a very high income tax rate, as well, IIRC.

Wonder if that might work here? Higher taxes I mean....maybe? directed solely at the "Supply-Siders"....LOL.... A "Directional Applied Confiscatory Tax Rate" - tm

KBM (juz sayin.........;o)

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Author: brucedoe Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21897 of 35362
Subject: Re: OT: Oil Production Date: 10/24/2007 10:19 AM
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Just you wait, missash, until you qualify for the creeping AMT which is an approximation of the flat tax.

brucedoe

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