Anyone besides myself feel CGO is currently over bought?If not, why?
I just recently bought CGO at about 44. The industry group was moving up for the last 3 months and CGO was one of the top in the group. Chart looked good. EPS and RS looked good. Good momentum. But now I am nervous too. I won't hold past 40 on the down side and it fell 3.6% today on higher than usual volume to 42.
I think we are in a whole new ball game here. In the 2nd quarter institutions bought 3.8 mil shrs and now hold 12.4 mil out of an entire float of 15.5 mil shares. Also, with the listing in the s&p midcap 400 at the end of july, institutions are buying even more shares. They tend to buy and hold longer than individuals and have a longer time horizon. If everything is going well with the co. they usually don't sell. As you are aware things are not going well- they are going gangbusters. This global trade thing is exploding and cgo is in the catbird seat. I don't think we will have the usual post quarter sell off as we had the last two years. We are going into peak season and everything is looking good, so institutions that are following cgo won't want to miss out by trading in and out.
With such strong EPS growth, this stock deserves to trade at a high multiple. The market P/E/is 25, this is 21. Granted, it is only a mid-cap. The key to its earnings growth is its EBIT expansion. Look at fuel prices, they have doubled over the past year. CGO does not pay fuel costs, it is paid by customers. This is the greatest expense in the air business. This should trade at higher than average multiples in this high fuel cost environment. Not to mention the increasing top-line from Asian traffic. It is at least a hold as it continue to outperform its industry index.
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